Florida at LSU Week 3 Betting Preview: Tigers Set to Roar at Home
The Bottom Line
Take LSU -8 and the UNDER 48.5 at MyBookie
Saturday night’s SEC opener between Florida (1-1) and No. 3 LSU (2-0) at Tiger Stadium presents a prime opportunity for savvy bettors. The Tigers’ defensive dominance and home-field advantage in Death Valley should prove too much for a Florida team still reeling from an inexcusable loss to South Florida.
Game Details
- Date: Saturday, September 13, 2025
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
- TV: ABC
- MyBookie Odds: LSU -8, Total 48.5
Why LSU Covers the Spread
Defensive Superiority
LSU is giving up just 8.5 points per game, ranking them 13th in Division 1, while establishing themselves as a legitimate championship contender early in the season. The Tigers have allowed only 89 total rushing yards (44.5 per game) and just one touchdown via the rush through two games. This stingy run defense will force freshman quarterback DJ Lagway into uncomfortable passing situations.
Florida’s Offensive Struggles
The Gators are coming off a devastating 18-16 home loss to South Florida that exposed critical flaws in their offensive execution. Florida averages just 35.5 points per game and ranks 69th nationally with 166.5 rushing yards per contest. Their inability to establish a consistent ground game will be magnified against LSU’s elite defense.
Home Field Advantage
Tiger Stadium at night is one of the most hostile environments in college football and the energy in that building should be off the charts. LSU is 7-1 in its last 8 home games, while Florida is 2-8 in its last 10 trips to Baton Rouge. The historical trends strongly favor the home Tigers.
Experience vs. Youth
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier brings veteran leadership and familiarity with big-game atmospheres, while Florida is still integrating freshman DJ Lagway into their offensive system. True freshman DJ Lagway is still settling in at quarterback for the Gators and faces his toughest road test yet.
The UNDER is the Play
Elite Defenses on Both Sides
Florida ranks 20th in Division 1 concerning team defense, allowing just 9.0 points per game, while LSU’s defense has been equally impressive. Both teams have shown the ability to limit explosive plays and force field goals over touchdowns.
Offensive Limitations
LSU currently ranks 107th in the country with just 20.0 points per contest, despite their perfect record. The Tigers have struggled to find consistent offensive rhythm, particularly in the red zone. Florida’s offensive inconsistency was on full display against South Florida, managing just 16 points at home.
Recent Form and Momentum
LSU (2-0)
The Tigers walked away with a victory by a final of 23-7 against Louisiana Tech in their most recent outing, showcasing their defensive prowess. LSU already has a signature victory over Clemson to open the season, establishing early credentials for their top-5 ranking.
Florida (1-1)
In their last game, the Gators went up against the USF Bulls and took a loss by a final of 18-16. This shocking upset at home has left serious questions about Florida’s mental toughness and execution in crucial moments.
Betting Analysis
The line has moved from LSU -6.5 in July to the current -8, with 67% of the action on the hosts according to recent reports. The market clearly recognizes LSU’s superiority, but this number still provides value.
LSU has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings against Florida, demonstrating their ability to handle this specific matchup. The Tigers’ combination of home-field advantage, defensive excellence, and quarterback experience creates a perfect storm for covering a single-digit spread.
The Picks
LSU -8: The Tigers’ defensive dominance and home-field advantage should create a comfortable victory margin. Florida’s youth and recent struggles suggest they’ll have difficulty generating enough offense to keep pace.
UNDER 48.5: Two strong defenses, offensive inconsistencies from both teams, and the historical tendency for this rivalry to produce lower-scoring affairs make the under an attractive play.
Both teams will likely rely heavily on their defenses, leading to a game decided by field position and critical turnovers rather than explosive offensive plays. Expect LSU to grind out a victory in classic SEC fashion, covering the spread while staying comfortably under the total.