Georgia Set to Continue Second-Half Dominance Against Florida

Saturday, November 1, 2025 | 3:30 PM ET | Jacksonville, FL
Georgia -7 | Total: 50.5 at MyBookie

The annual border war between Florida and Georgia returns to Jacksonville this Saturday, with the Bulldogs entering as 7-point favorites in what has become an increasingly one-sided rivalry. Georgia brings a 6-1 record (4-1 SEC) into the matchup, while Florida limps in at 3-4 overall after recently parting ways with head coach Billy Napier.

The Tale of Two Programs

The contrast between these programs couldn’t be starker. Georgia remains firmly in the hunt for both an SEC Championship and national title contention with just one loss on the season. Meanwhile, Florida operates under interim leadership and has struggled against quality competition, dropping games to LSU, Texas A&M, and Miami—all by double digits—while also suffering an embarrassing early-season loss to South Florida.

The Gators’ resume lacks substance. Their recent 23-21 win over a 4-4 Mississippi State squad represents their most notable achievement, alongside a win over a Texas team whose true quality remains questionable. When faced with legitimate competition, Florida has consistently fallen short, and the margin of defeat tells the story.

Second-Half Separation

The most telling statistic heading into this matchup reveals itself in second-half performance. Georgia remains unbeaten after halftime this season—a perfect 7-0 in second-half results. Florida’s second-half record stands at a dismal 1-6, with their lone win coming against Long Island University. This disparity speaks directly to depth, conditioning, and the ability to make adjustments—areas where championship-caliber programs separate themselves from the pack.

Our second-half model projects Georgia to outscore Florida by double digits after halftime, with the Gators struggling to reach the end zone in the final two quarters. This aligns perfectly with what we’ve witnessed throughout the season: Georgia wearing down opponents and pulling away when it matters most.

Recent History Favors the Bulldogs

The recent trajectory of this rivalry paints a clear picture. Georgia has dominated the last four meetings, winning each contest by 14 points or more. Perhaps more concerning for Florida supporters: the Gators have managed exactly 20 points in each of the last three encounters, with just seven points scored four years ago. Meanwhile, Georgia has consistently eclipsed the 34-point mark in each win during this stretch.

Since taking over in Athens, Kirby Smart holds a 7-2 record against Florida, with those seven wins coming by an average margin of 21 points. Even in defeat, the games haven’t been particularly close—Florida’s two wins during the Smart era came by an average of 15 points. This rivalry rarely produces nail-biters; one team typically establishes control and maintains it.

Statistical Breakdown

The numbers support what we see on the field. Georgia averages 33.7 points per game (39th nationally) while holding opponents to 19.6 points (30th). Their balanced attack produces 428.4 total yards per game, with both the passing game (237.9 yards) and ground attack (190.6 yards) contributing effectively.

Florida’s offensive struggles become apparent in their scoring average of just 22.4 points per game (104th nationally). While their defense has performed respectably, allowing 20.0 points per game (34th), the offense simply hasn’t provided enough support to compete with upper-tier SEC programs.

Quarterback Gunner Stockton has guided Georgia’s offense efficiently, completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,553 yards and 10 touchdowns. His counterpart, DJ Lagway, has shown flashes but lacks consistency, throwing for 1,513 yards with a 65.3% completion rate and 9 touchdowns.

Betting Angles and Trends

Several trends point toward Georgia covering the spread:

• Georgia has won 45 consecutive games against non-AP-ranked opponents
• Florida has dropped 11 straight against top-5 AP-ranked teams
• Georgia has covered in each of their last three games
• Florida sits at 2-5 ATS on the season
• The Gators have failed to cover in their last four games against top-5 opposition

For those interested in second-half wagering, DraftKings offers Georgia -3.5 for the second half pregame—a line that appears generous given the season-long trends. However, pregame second-half wagers carry inherent risk due to potential injuries or unexpected game flow.

The Pick

Everything points toward Georgia asserting their superiority, particularly after halftime. The combination of superior depth, coaching stability, and recent dominance in this rivalry creates a perfect storm for the Bulldogs to cover the 7-point spread.

However, our strongest position centers on the second half. With Georgia’s perfect second-half record against Florida’s struggles after intermission, waiting for the halftime line offers the best value. The ideal scenario sees a competitive first half that keeps the halftime spread reasonable, setting up Georgia to pull away in the final 30 minutes as they’ve done consistently all season.

The talent gap, coaching situation, and historical trends all align. Georgia covers the 7-point spread, but the real value lies in attacking the second-half line once it becomes available (or taking a chance with the pre game 2nd half line Georgia -3.5)

Official Play: Georgia Second Half (wait for halftime line)
Secondary Play: Georgia -7 (Full Game)