Georgia Finally Ready to Break Through Against Alabama in SEC Title Game

SEC Championship Game
Saturday, December 6, 2025 – 4:00 PM ET
Georgia -2.5 | Total: 48 | MyBookie

The SEC Championship brings another chapter in this rivalry, with Alabama holding a dominant 7-1 record against Georgia since 2018. The Crimson Tide have taken all three previous SEC title game meetings between these programs, but Saturday’s rematch offers the Bulldogs a prime opportunity for same-season revenge after their narrow 24-21 loss in September.

The Case for Georgia

Our models show a razor-thin margin in this matchup, with our full-season projection favoring Alabama 20-18, while recent-form data (last seven games) gives Georgia an 18-17 edge. This split decision reflects how evenly matched these teams are statistically.

Both squads post nearly identical yards per point ratios – approximately 12.7 on offense and 17.0 on defense. However, Georgia holds a significant advantage in the ground game efficiency. The Bulldogs boast a +1.5 yards per rush attempt differential compared to Alabama’s concerning -0.7 mark. While Alabama narrows the gap with a +0.7 yards per play differential, Georgia still maintains the edge at +1.0.

Computer Models Split on Outcome

The analytical community remains divided on this game. Among six prominent computer models:

• Three project Georgia as the winner (ranging from 53% to 54% probability)
• Two favor Alabama (51% to 53% probability)
• One model strongly backs Georgia based on rushing metrics, projecting Alabama to manage just 2.8 yards per carry while Georgia averages 4.6

These narrow margins suggest we’re looking at another one-possession game, potentially decided by a late field goal or turnover.

Defensive Strengths Set the Tone

Both defenses rank among the nation’s elite. Alabama sits 11th nationally allowing 16.5 points per game, while Georgia ranks 12th at 16.7 points allowed. This defensive prowess has pushed totals under in recent games – Georgia has gone under in nine of their last 14 contests, while Alabama has done so in 10 of 14.

The September meeting produced just 45 total points despite featuring only one turnover. Remarkably, 31 of those points came in the second quarter alone, with the fourth quarter remaining scoreless. This scoring pattern demonstrates how both defenses can clamp down when needed.

Georgia’s Path to Revenge

The Bulldogs’ ground attack ran for 227 yards in the September loss, exposing Alabama’s run defense that allows 124.3 yards per game. If Georgia can establish their rushing attack early and avoid the fast starts that have plagued them against Alabama, they can control the tempo and keep Ty Simpson and the Tide offense on the sidelines.

Georgia’s defense has been particularly stingy lately, surrendering just 22 total points across their last three games – including two against ranked opponents. This defensive form could be the difference-maker if they can prevent Alabama from jumping out to another quick lead.

Historical Trends Worth Noting

Alabama has thrived as an underdog in this series, winning five of six games when getting points dating back to 2012. The Tide have also won all five SEC Championship meetings between these programs. However, revenge motivation in rematches often provides value, especially when the initial margin was just three points.

The under has hit in three of the last four meetings between these teams, supporting the low total of 48. Both teams feature seventh-ranked or better pass defenses, with Alabama allowing just 157.8 yards per game through the air.

The Pick

This game profiles as a last-possession battle where field position and turnovers will likely determine the outcome. While Alabama’s historical dominance in this matchup commands respect, Georgia’s superior rushing differential and recent defensive form give them the tools to finally break through.

Same-season revenge provides powerful motivation, particularly in a championship setting where Georgia has repeatedly fallen short. The Bulldogs’ ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball should be the deciding factor in what projects as another defensive struggle.

The Play: Georgia Moneyline -135

We’re keeping this a small play given the razor-thin margins and Alabama’s historical success in this matchup. However, the value lies with Georgia finally getting over the hump against their SEC rivals when it matters most.