Indiana at Maryland: Betting Analysis for November 1, 2025

The #2 Indiana Hoosiers roll into College Park this Saturday as massive 22-point road favorites against the Maryland Terrapins. With the total set at 51 points at MyBookie, this Big Ten matchup presents interesting betting angles for sharp bettors to consider.

The Hoosiers’ Unstoppable March

Indiana’s remarkable 8-0 start has them positioned for their biggest season in program history. After demolishing UCLA 56-6 last weekend, the Hoosiers have proven they can dominate quality opponents. That 50-point win becomes even more impressive when you consider Maryland just fell to those same Bruins by a narrow 20-17 margin.

Fernando Mendoza has orchestrated this high-powered offense with precision, throwing for 1,923 yards and 24 touchdowns against just three interceptions. The Hoosiers’ offense has posted 363 total points this season, ranking third nationally in scoring. Their ability to score from anywhere on the field has overwhelmed opponents, and Maryland’s defense – which has surrendered 121 points in seven games – faces a monumental challenge.

Maryland’s Narrow Margins

The Terrapins sit at 4-3 overall and just 1-3 in Big Ten play, but their record doesn’t tell the complete story. All three conference losses came by four points or fewer – falling 24-20 to Washington, 34-31 to Nebraska, and 20-17 to UCLA. While their competitiveness in tight games shows resilience, it also highlights their inability to close out wins when it matters most.

Maryland squandered a 20-3 fourth-quarter lead against Washington and blew another late advantage against Nebraska. These collapses raise serious questions about their ability to hang with an Indiana team that has shown no mercy in putting opponents away. Freshman quarterback Malik Washington has shown flashes of promise with 1,716 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, but his 47.9% completion rate against UCLA reveals inconsistency that could prove costly against Indiana’s opportunistic defense.

The Betting Breakdown

Our models show divergent opinions on the spread but unanimous agreement on the total. While projections range from Indiana winning by 16 to 25 points, every model points toward the Under 51. The reasoning becomes clear when examining Indiana’s toughest tests this season – the Hoosiers and Oregon combined for just 50 points, while their matchup with Iowa produced only 35 total points.

Indiana has gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and stands 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Maryland. The Hoosiers have thrived as heavy favorites, posting a 28-2 straight-up record in their last 30 games when favored. Meanwhile, Maryland has performed well against the number recently, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games, including covering in all three conference losses.

Historical Trends and Weather Impact

The total has gone Over in 11 of Indiana’s last 14 road games, but Maryland’s recent defensive performances suggest a different story. The Terrapins have seen the Under hit in five of their last seven contests. With Maryland allowing just 17.3 points per game – ranking 18th nationally – they’ve shown the ability to slow down opposing offenses, even in losses.

Weather could also play a factor, though current forecasts show clear conditions for Saturday’s 3:30 PM kickoff at SECU Stadium. Any change toward precipitation would further support the Under, as both teams might lean more heavily on their ground games.

The Bottom Line

While Indiana should handle Maryland comfortably, the 22-point spread feels aggressive given the Terrapins’ ability to keep games close. Maryland has covered as underdogs in their last four attempts, showing they won’t simply roll over at home. However, the gap in overall talent and execution makes an outright upset seem impossible.

The stronger play appears to be the Under 51. When facing their best competition, Indiana’s games have stayed lower scoring. Combined with Maryland’s solid defensive numbers and their tendency toward lower-scoring affairs recently, this total looks inflated based on Indiana’s season-long offensive statistics rather than situational factors.

Final Assessment: Lean to the Under 51. Indiana wins comfortably but Maryland’s defense keeps this from becoming the track meet the total suggests. Look for something in the range of Indiana 31, Maryland 14.