Iowa vs. Rutgers Big Ten Opener: Can the Scarlet Knights Cover as Home Dogs?
Friday, September 19, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET | FOX
SHI Stadium, Piscataway, New Jersey
Our Pick: Rutgers +3 (-115) (Shop – available at a couple books)
The Big Ten season officially kicks into gear Friday night under the lights at SHI Stadium, where the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) host the Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1) as 2.5 to 3 point underdogs. (Betonline)
Early Season Handicapping Challenges
Handicapping games this early in the season presents unique challenges, particularly when both teams have largely feasted on lesser competition. While Iowa did face Iowa State, falling 16-13 in a disappointing performance, both programs have otherwise padded their records against overmatched opponents. The Hawkeyes demolished UAlbany and UMass, while Rutgers rolled through Ohio, Miami (Ohio), and Norfolk State without breaking a sweat.
These early Big Ten matchups can be particularly tricky to assess, as conference play often reveals the true character of teams that may have looked dominant against weaker non-conference foes.
The Historical Context
The recent history between these programs heavily favors Iowa, creating an interesting backdrop for this contest. The Hawkeyes have absolutely dominated this series, outscoring Rutgers 79-10 over their last three meetings. Iowa shut out the Scarlet Knights 22-0 in 2023, won 27-10 in 2022, and blanked them 30-0 in 2019. The only competitive game came in their first meeting back in 2016, when Iowa escaped with a 14-7 victory.
However, this historical dominance may be creating value in backing Rutgers as a home underdog. The Scarlet Knights appear to be a fundamentally different team under Greg Schiano’s continued development of the program.
Why Rutgers Can Cover
This isn’t the same Rutgers squad that has been overwhelmed in previous meetings with Iowa. The Scarlet Knights have evolved significantly on offense, showing a much more dynamic passing attack that should give Iowa’s defense different looks than they’ve seen in past encounters.
Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has been efficient through three games, completing passes at a 72.9% clip while ranking among the nation’s leaders in completion percentage. The aerial attack has been complemented by a balanced ground game, with the team effectively controlling tempo and time of possession.
Perhaps most encouraging for Rutgers backers is their special teams excellence. The Scarlet Knights lead the nation with three blocked punts and have shown the ability to create game-changing plays in all three phases. Their special teams coordinator has built a unit that can flip field position and momentum in crucial moments.
Defensively, Rutgers has shown improvement in creating turnovers, collecting three in their past two contests. If they can force Iowa into uncomfortable situations and capitalize on short fields, they have the offensive firepower to keep pace.
The home environment should also benefit Rutgers significantly. This is their “Blackout Game” with enhanced pregame festivities and a prime-time television window that should create an electric atmosphere at SHI Stadium. The Scarlet Knights are 19-10 in home night games under Schiano, showing they know how to perform in these spotlight moments.
Iowa’s Strengths and Concerns
Iowa brings a typically stingy defense that ranks in the top 15 nationally in pass defense and top 10 against the run. The Hawkeyes have built their identity on controlling games through field position and defense, then capitalizing on opponent mistakes.
However, this Iowa offense has shown concerning inconsistencies. While they put up 47 points against UMass, that performance came against one of the weakest defenses in college football. More telling was their inability to generate sustained drives against Iowa State, where they managed just 13 points in a game they needed to win.
The Hawkeyes’ running game, while effective against overmatched opponents, may struggle against a Rutgers defense that has shown improvement in recent weeks. If Iowa is forced into obvious passing situations, their offensive limitations could be exposed.
Special Teams Battle
Both programs feature strong special teams units that could swing this contest. Iowa’s Drew Stevens has been money from distance, connecting on 6-of-7 field goal attempts this season and sitting just seven field goals away from the program record. His leg strength and accuracy give the Hawkeyes a significant advantage in field position battles.
Rutgers counters with their blocked kick prowess, having already registered three blocked punts this season. Their ability to disrupt Iowa’s punting game could create short fields and scoring opportunities that help overcome any talent gaps.
The Bottom Line
While Iowa’s recent dominance in this series is undeniable, betting markets may be overvaluing that historical trend relative to the current reality. Rutgers appears to have genuinely closed the gap with improved offensive execution and continued defensive development under Schiano’s system.
The home environment, improved personnel, and motivation to break through against a program that has dominated them create compelling reasons to believe Rutgers can not only compete but potentially pull off the outright upset.
At +2.5, we’re getting enough cushion to cover even if Iowa manages a narrow victory, while also having a legitimate shot at a Scarlet Knights upset in what should be a low-scoring, field position-dependent contest.
Final Prediction: Take Rutgers +3 (-115)
The Scarlet Knights have evolved into a “live dog” that can compete with anyone at home, and this spread may not fully reflect their improvement relative to an Iowa program that continues to struggle with offensive consistency.