Kansas vs Missouri Betting Preview: Why the Jayhawks Are a Live Dog
The Pick: Kansas +6 (-110) betonline and MyBookie
The Border Showdown returns to Columbia for the first time since 2006, and while Missouri enters as 6-point home favorites, there are compelling reasons to back Kansas as a live underdog in this historic rivalry renewal.
Kansas Defense Has Been Dominant
The Jayhawks’ defensive transformation under first-year coordinator D.K. McDonald has been nothing short of remarkable. Through two games, Kansas has allowed just 14 points and 359 total yards – the fewest points allowed through two games since 2009. Most impressively, they’ve held opponents to just 90 rushing yards combined, also the best mark since 2009.
This isn’t just a product of weak competition – Fresno State is a respectable Group of Five program that Kansas completely shut down. The defensive numbers suggest this unit is legitimately improved and capable of slowing down Missouri’s transfer-heavy offense.
Quarterback Advantage Goes to Kansas
While Missouri’s Beau Pribula looked impressive against Central Arkansas, throwing for 283 yards and two touchdowns, the competition level must be considered. Pribula attempted just 56 passes across two seasons at Penn State, making him largely unproven as a consistent passer at the Power 4 level.
Jalon Daniels, conversely, has been explosive to start the season with 456 yards and seven touchdowns through just a game and a half. The veteran signal-caller has already thrown the most touchdown passes by a Kansas quarterback through two games since at least 1996. More importantly, he’s one of only three Power 4 quarterbacks nationally with 50-plus touchdown passes and 7,000-plus yards at one school in his career.
As the Sports Illustrated analysis noted, “when it comes to who can orchestrate a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter, we’ll take Daniels every time.” In a close game, having the more proven quarterback is crucial.
Offensive Balance and Weapons
Kansas enters with a more balanced offensive attack than many realize. Running back Daniel Hishaw Jr. has already rushed for 158 yards and a touchdown, while receivers Emmanuel Henderson Jr. and Cam Pickett have combined for 17 catches, 260 yards and five touchdowns. Most tellingly, Daniels has completed passes to 15 different receivers through two games, showing the depth and versatility of this offense.
Historical Context Favors the Underdog
This rivalry has always been competitive, with Missouri holding just a slim 56-55-9 all-time series lead despite being the “bigger brother” program. Kansas last won in Columbia in 2004, but that 21-year gap means nothing once the game kicks off. Rivalry games often produce unexpected results, and the emotional weight of this matchup returning after 14 years could fuel the Jayhawks.
Value in the Number
At +6, Kansas doesn’t need to win outright to cash the ticket. ESPN’s computer model gives Missouri a 64% chance to win, but that still leaves Kansas with better than 1-in-3 odds – much better than the implied probability suggests for a 6-point underdog.
Missouri’s lone game came against Central Arkansas, an FCS opponent that provides little insight into how they’ll perform against Power 4 competition. Kansas, meanwhile, has already proven they can handle a legitimate Group of Five team in Fresno State.
The Bottom Line
While Missouri will have the crowd and SEC mystique behind them, Kansas brings a proven quarterback, an improved defense that’s allowing just seven points per game, and the motivation of playing spoiler in a long-awaited rivalry renewal. Six points is too many to lay on an unproven Missouri team against a Kansas squad that has looked sharp in all three phases through two games.
Take Kansas +6 and ride with the live dog in Columbia.