LSU at Alabama: Tigers Face Tough Test in First Game Without Brian Kelly

Saturday, November 8, 2025 | 7:30 PM ET | Bryant-Denny Stadium | ABC
Line: Alabama -10 | Total: 49 | BetOnline

The LSU Tigers enter their most challenging game of the season under extraordinary circumstances. Following the dismissal of head coach Brian Kelly earlier this week, interim coach Frank Wilson will lead the team into Bryant-Denny Stadium as 10-point underdogs against the fourth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide.

Coaching Change Creates Uncertainty

The timing of Kelly’s departure couldn’t be worse for LSU. After parting ways with their head coach following a loss to Texas A&M, the Tigers have had limited time to adjust to new leadership. Wilson, who previously served as assistant head coach, takes over a program in transition and immediately faces one of the SEC’s elite teams.

Wilson’s first significant decision was promoting run game coordinator Alex Atkins to offensive play-caller. This move raises concerns for bettors, as Atkins’ most recent coordinator experience at Florida State saw that offense rank 133rd nationally in yards per play, averaging just 3.9.

Athletic director Scott Woodward also departed this week, adding another layer of organizational disruption as the Tigers prepare for this crucial matchup.

Offensive Matchup Concerns

LSU’s offensive struggles have been well-documented this season. The Tigers currently average just 5.3 yards per play, ranking 79th nationally. This becomes particularly problematic against an Alabama defense that allows only 5.1 yards per play overall and just 4.5 yards per play at home.

The ground game has been especially ineffective for LSU. The offensive line generates an SEC-worst 2.5 line yards while allowing a havoc rate of 17.7%, fourth-worst in the conference. This inability to establish the run forces LSU into predictable passing situations, playing directly into Alabama’s defensive strengths.

Market Analysis and Trends

Alabama enters this matchup having won their last several games convincingly, while LSU has struggled recently with losses in three of their last four contests. The psychological impact of the coaching change combined with the hostile road environment creates a challenging situation for the Tigers.

The Spread Play

The circumstances surrounding this game point toward Alabama covering the 10-point spread. LSU’s combination of coaching turmoil, offensive line problems, and installation of a new play-calling system with minimal preparation time creates significant disadvantages.

The underlying metrics suggest Alabama’s advantage might be even greater than the current spread indicates. When multiple rating systems project a larger margin than the betting line, it often signals continued value on the favorite.

Pick: Alabama -10 (-110)

Total Analysis

The under 49 deserves consideration given the expected pace and style of this game. LSU’s offensive inefficiencies become magnified against quality defenses, and implementing a new offensive system on short notice typically results in conservative play-calling and execution issues.

With LSU’s struggles to sustain drives and Alabama’s ability to control game tempo, scoring could fall short of the current number.

Lean: Under 49 (-110)

Final Assessment

This matchup presents a clear mismatch between a program in chaos and a team hitting its stride. LSU faces the daunting challenge of competing in one of college football’s toughest road venues while dealing with massive organizational changes. The week of preparation under interim leadership against a talented Alabama squad creates a situation where the double-digit spread appears justified.

For bettors, the combination of LSU’s internal disruption and on-field struggles makes Alabama an attractive play despite laying significant points. While rivalry games can produce surprises, the current circumstances heavily favor the Crimson Tide to win comfortably at home.