Marquee showdown in Norman – Michigan at Oklahoma Preview & Pick (9/6/25)
For the first time in almost half a century, two blue‑blood programs square off when No. 14 Michigan travels to No. 18 Oklahoma on Sept. 6. Oddsmakers at BetOnline opened the Sooners as six‑point favorites with a total of 46½, but our blended model (incorporating 2024 and early‑2025 data) projects a 17‑17 game. Given the context and match‑ups, Michigan +6 offers value, and the under deserves consideration.
A long‑awaited rematch
Michigan and Oklahoma have met only once before – the 1976 Orange Bowl. The Wolverines limited Oklahoma to 63 passing yards but couldn’t generate offense of their own; the Sooners led 14‑0 early in the fourth quarter and won 14‑6, clinching the national title for Oklahoma. That result left Michigan winless in bowl games at the time. Nearly 50 years later, the stakes are different but the programs remain iconic; ESPN’s College GameDay will broadcast from Norman for this contest.
Michigan’s 2025 form
Under second‑year head coach Sherrone Moore – an Oklahoma alum who played offensive line for the Sooners – Michigan opened its season with a 34‑17 win over New Mexico. True freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood looked poised, completing 21‑of‑31 passes for 251 yards and a touchdown. Alabama transfer Justice Haynes powered the ground game with 159 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries, while tight end Marlin Klein emerged as Underwood’s favorite target with six catches for 93 yards and a score. The Wolverine defense, now under veteran coordinator Wink Martindale, forced three interceptions and allowed just 61 rushing yards. Depth will be tested early, however; star linebacker Jaishawn Barham must sit out the first half against Oklahoma after his targeting appeal was denied, meaning linebackers Jimmy Rolder and Cole Sullivan are likely to play significant snaps. Even so, the defense appears stout and the rushing attack looks like the identity of the offense.
Oklahoma’s 2025 form
Oklahoma also cruised in Week 1, beating Illinois State 35‑3. John Mateer, a transfer from Washington State, set a program record for passing yards in an OU debut with 392 yards and three touchdowns; he added a short rushing score. The Sooners’ defense held Illinois State to 151 total yards (only 34 through the air) and 1‑for‑11 on third down. Beneath the lopsided score, however, lie reasons to be cautious: Oklahoma rushed for only 103 yards and averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Several offensive linemen – Michael Fasusi, Heath Ozaeta and Derek Simmons – missed the opener, and starting left tackle Jacob Sexton exited after two drives. Transfer running back Jaydn Ott was used sparingly due to a minor shoulder injury, forcing the Sooners to rely on Jovantae Barnes, true freshman Tory Blaylock and sophomore Xavier Robinson. Coach Brent Venables and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle both said the offensive line needs to develop chemistry and that there is “a lot to build from” before facing Michigan. Until proven otherwise, Oklahoma’s rushing attack doesn’t look explosive enough to exploit Michigan’s run defense, which held New Mexico to 50 yards on 28 attempts.
What the coaches and players are saying
Venables has shown respect for the Wolverines. He called Michigan “a great football team” with a history of elite success and said it’s “really cool” to have two iconic programs meeting. He emphasised a process‑driven approach, noting that the Illinois State game “was the biggest game of the year” and that preparation doesn’t change week to week. Mateer echoed that sentiment, stating that preparation is the same no matter the opponent and describing Michigan as “real physical up front” and a “blue‑collar program.” Michigan’s Moore disagreed with the targeting call on Barham, telling reporters the staff doesn’t agree with the ejection and will handle it with the Big Ten. Safety Brandyn Hillman also thought it was a clean hit and just part of aggressive football.
Betting analysis – why Michigan +6 and the under make sense
Oddsmakers moved the lookahead line from Oklahoma ‑2½ to as high as ‑6 after Week 1, in part because of Mateer’s record‑setting debut. Yet Michigan’s balanced offense and stout defense make the Wolverines a live dog. Underwood doesn’t look like a typical freshman, Haynes gives Michigan a powerful rushing attack, and Klein adds a reliable intermediate target. Moore’s familiarity with Oklahoma’s environment could help calm Michigan’s young quarterback in a hostile stadium. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s shaky run game and injury‑riddled line could play into Michigan’s defensive strength. Our model’s 17‑17 projection implies the total should be closer to 34 than to the posted 46½, suggesting value on the under. In a game featuring two proud defenses and physical rushing attacks, points may come at a premium.
Pick: Michigan +6. The Wolverines have the trenches to keep this game within one score, and their improved offensive cohesion makes an outright upset possible. With both teams likely to lean on the run and play conservatively, the under is also worth a look.