Missouri Tigers at Auburn Tigers: Sharp Money on the Home Underdog
Game Details:
- Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
- Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Alabama
- Spread: Auburn +1.5
- Total: 43.5
- Odds via MyBookie
The Case for Auburn
Auburn enters this matchup with a deceiving 3-3 record that tells only part of the story. The Tigers are arguably the best 3-3 team in the nation, having opened with three straight wins against Baylor and two lesser opponents before running into a brutal stretch of ranked conference opponents.
Their three losses came by a combined 13 points against top-15 competition. Auburn held a 17-16 lead over #14 Oklahoma until the final four minutes of the game. They fell to #4 Texas A&M by just 6, trailing 16-13 late before the Aggies added another field goal for insurance. Most heartbreaking was last week’s 20-10 loss to #9 Georgia, where a seemingly obvious touchdown in the first half was overturned by replay, completely shifting momentum when Auburn appeared headed to a commanding 17-0 lead.
This week presents a revenge opportunity against #16 Missouri, who escaped with a 21-17 win at home last season.
Missouri’s Close Call
The Tigers from Columbia showed resilience last week against Alabama, closing what was a 27-17 fourth-quarter deficit to just three points with a touchdown in the final 1:39.
Missouri’s signature wins this season came against South Carolina and Kansas, but the Alabama game represented a legitimate step up in class. Now they face another stern test on the road against an Auburn squad that has proven capable of competing with anyone in the country.
Why Auburn Gets the Win
Home Field Advantage: Jordan-Hare Stadium is one of the toughest venues in college football, and Auburn has demonstrated they can hang with elite teams. Playing at home as a slight underdog should provide extra motivation.
Schedule Strength: Auburn’s losses came against three ranked opponents by a total of 13 points. They’ve been in position to win all three games late. Missouri’s quality wins don’t compare to the level of competition Auburn has faced.
Revenge Factor: Last season’s 21-17 loss in Columbia sits fresh in Auburn’s memory. This is a statement game for a team that needs to start converting close losses into wins.
Remaining Schedule: With eight or nine wins and a decent bowl game still within reach, Auburn needs this game to kickstart the second half of their season. The desperation level favors the home team.
Betting Trends
Auburn comes in at 2-4 against the spread this season, while Missouri sits at 4-2 ATS. However, context matters. Auburn has covered in competitive losses and their home environment should provide the edge needed in what projects as a tight, low-scoring affair.
The total of 43.5 suggests oddsmakers expect a defensive struggle, which should benefit the team with home field advantage in a physical SEC matchup.
The Pick: Auburn +1.5
Missouri is giving points on the road in a hostile environment against a team that has proven it belongs with the best teams in the nation. Auburn’s three losses could easily have been wins with a few bounces going their way. This is the week where the Tigers from the Plains finally break through.
Take Auburn +1.5