North Texas vs Army: Mean Green Look to Avenge Last Year’s Defeat

Saturday, September 20, 2025 | Michie Stadium, West Point, NY | 12:00 PM ET

The Line: North Texas -2 | Total: 52 (Betonline)

The North Texas Mean Green (3-0) travel to the hostile confines of Michie Stadium to face the Army Black Knights (1-1) in a matchup between contrasting styles. After suffering a frustrating 14-3 defeat at home to Army last season, the Mean Green enter as slight road favorites looking for redemption.

Recent Form Tells Two Different Stories

North Texas has been nothing short of dominant through their first three games, culminating in last week’s statement 59-10 victory over Washington State as 5.5-point favorites. Sharp bettors who backed the Mean Green were handsomely rewarded as the team showcased both offensive firepower and defensive improvement under coordinator Skyler Cassity.

Army, meanwhile, presents a tale of two performances. After an underwhelming season-opening loss to Tarleton State, the Black Knights bounced back impressively with a 24-21 upset victory over Kansas State in Manhattan. The win demonstrated Army’s ability to execute their methodical game plan when given the opportunity.

The X-Factor: Time of Possession Battle

Last year’s meeting was a masterclass in Army’s approach to controlling games. The Black Knights dominated time of possession for 41 minutes, including a remarkable 21-play, 94-yard touchdown drive that consumed nearly 11 minutes of game clock. This style of play puts immense pressure on opposing offenses to be perfect with limited opportunities.

For North Texas to succeed, they must avoid the pressing mentality that plagued them in 2024. The Mean Green’s offensive efficiency has improved dramatically this season, with third-down conversion rates up 14% and a significant reduction in turnovers.

Statistical Breakdown

North Texas Offense: The Mean Green are averaging 47.7 points per game behind a more efficient attack than last year. While their rushing yards per game (156.3) ranks just 77th nationally, their overall offensive balance has been impressive. Most importantly, they’ve dramatically reduced mistakes while maintaining their explosive potential.

Army Offense: The Black Knights average 371.5 yards per contest, with their ground game accounting for 258.5 yards per outing. However, they’re experiencing some regression from last season’s dominant rushing attack, averaging a full yard less per carry. The graduation of key players has clearly impacted their offensive efficiency.

Defensive Considerations: North Texas has transformed defensively under Cassity, allowing just 13.3 points per game (30th nationally) and holding opponents to 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. Army’s defense remains solid but unspectacular, ranking 90th in scoring defense at 25.5 points allowed per game.

Key Matchup: Drew Mestemaker vs Army’s Discipline

North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker faces his biggest test of the season in the intimidating atmosphere of West Point. The sophomore has shown poise and accuracy through three games, but Army’s disciplined defense will test his decision-making under pressure. Unlike last year when Morris forced throws into coverage, Mestemaker must remain patient and take what the defense gives him.

Simulation Models and Sharp Money

Computer simulations give North Texas a 56% win probability with a projected final score of 27-25. Sharp action appears to be backing the Mean Green despite the challenging road environment.

The Bottom Line

While Army’s unique style can frustrate opponents and create variance, North Texas appears better equipped to handle the Black Knights’ methodical approach this season. The Mean Green’s defensive improvement should help them get more possessions, while their offensive efficiency has reached a level that can capitalize on limited opportunities.

The revenge factor is real after last year’s disappointing performance at home. North Texas has the motivation and, more importantly, the improved execution to get the job done on the road.

Prediction: North Texas covers the -2 spread in a closer-than-expected contest.

Best Bet: North Texas -2 | Lean: Under 52