Oklahoma at Tennessee: SEC Showdown in Knoxville

Game Details:

• Date: Saturday, November 1, 2025
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
• TV: ABC
• Spread: Tennessee -3 (MyBookie)
• Total: 57 (MyBookie)

The Matchup

Two 6-2 SEC teams square off in Knoxville with playoff aspirations still alive. Tennessee enters at 3-2 in conference play while Oklahoma sits at 2-2. Though neither team can realistically contend for the SEC title with four games remaining, both need this win to strengthen their playoff resume.

The statistical profiles of these teams are remarkably similar in crucial areas. In yards per rush attempt differential, Oklahoma posts a +1.4 mark (20th nationally) while Tennessee checks in at +1.3 (24th nationally). They’re deadlocked at +1.4 in yards per play differential, showing both teams control the line of scrimmage effectively.

Tale of Two Units

Where these teams diverge is in their approach to efficiency. Tennessee’s offense operates at 11.5 offensive yards per point compared to Oklahoma’s 13.1, indicating the Vols score more efficiently when they move the ball. However, the Sooners compensate with superior defensive efficiency, requiring opponents to gain 18.3 yards per point (11th nationally) while Tennessee’s defense allows a point for every 13 yards (109th nationally).

The Sooners’ two losses came against Texas and Ole Miss, both quality opponents. Their defensive numbers are impressive on paper, but questions remain about whether they can contain Tennessee’s explosive offense. Only Alabama has managed to hold the Vols below 30 points this season, limiting them to 20. Otherwise, Tennessee has routinely put up 40-plus points against SEC competition.

Key Matchup: Tennessee’s Pass Rush vs. Oklahoma’s Protection

The Vols’ pass rush could be the decisive factor. Oklahoma ranks 93rd nationally in sacks allowed per conference game, struggling to protect quarterback John Mateer consistently. Tennessee averages 3.2 sacks per SEC contest and should find opportunities to disrupt the Sooners’ offense.

Mateer hasn’t looked the same since returning from injury against Texas. His rushing effectiveness has declined, his completion percentage has dropped, and he’s averaging fewer yards per pass attempt. Against a Tennessee secondary that has shown vulnerability – allowing Kentucky’s Cutter Boley to throw five touchdown passes last week – Mateer might find some success through the air. However, the constant pressure could limit Oklahoma’s ability to sustain drives.

Tennessee’s Aerial Attack

Joey Aguilar and the Vols’ passing game have been clicking recently. Against Kentucky, Aguilar accumulated over 270 yards on his seven biggest completions alone. On deep balls of 20-plus yards this season, he’s completed 21 of 37 attempts for 834 yards with an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Oklahoma’s defense, while highly ranked, showed cracks against Ole Miss. The Rebels threw for over 300 yards, with Trinidad Chambliss completing three of seven passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. If Tennessee can provide Aguilar with time to operate, the Sooners could be in for a long night.

Betting Angles

The total has gone over in every Tennessee game this season, with only the 37-20 loss to Alabama coming close to staying under. Tennessee’s secondary ranks 93rd in quality drive rate allowed and 113th in points allowed on those drives. They’ve also surrendered 32 completions of 20-plus yards, eighth-most in college football.

Oklahoma enters this as their fifth consecutive game, and signs of defensive fatigue are beginning to show. The Sooners managed pressure on just 12 of 47 dropbacks against Ole Miss, allowing Chambliss to complete 20 of 35 passes from a clean pocket for 291 yards.

Recent Form and Projections

While our standard scoring model suggests an Oklahoma win by a touchdown in most simulations, recent performance data tells a different story. When analyzing only the last four games for each team, the projection shifts dramatically to Tennessee winning 29-23. This aligns with the home field advantage and the Vols’ offensive firepower being too much for the Sooners to handle.

Tennessee’s ability to score efficiently combined with Oklahoma’s offensive line struggles creates a favorable matchup for the home team. The Sooners’ offense ranks 72nd in points per quality drive and frequently faces second and third-and-long situations due to negative plays.

The Pick

Tennessee -3

The combination of Neyland Stadium’s home field advantage and Tennessee’s explosive offense should prove too much for Oklahoma to overcome. While the Sooners possess a stout defense, their offensive line issues and Mateer’s recent struggles will limit their scoring opportunities. Tennessee’s ability to hit big plays through the air, coupled with their pass rush disrupting Oklahoma’s rhythm, positions them to cover this small spread.

Projected Score: Tennessee 29, Oklahoma 23

The over also presents value given both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities in the passing game and Tennessee’s consistent ability to exceed scoring expectations at home.