Oklahoma vs Texas: Sooners Set to Upset in Red River Rivalry
Saturday, October 11, 2025 | Cotton Bowl, Dallas | 3:30 PM ET | ABC
The Red River Rivalry returns to Dallas with an unexpected twist this year. The undefeated #6 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) enter as underdogs against an unranked Texas Longhorns team (3-2) that just suffered a devastating loss in The Swamp. With Texas favored by just 1.5 points and a total set at 43 at MyBookie, this matchup presents significant value on the underdog Sooners.
Line Movement Tells the Story
The betting market has spoken volumes about this game. What opened as an 11.5-point spread favoring Texas in the summer has collapsed to just 1.5 points. The movement from +3 to the current number suggests the market believes John Mateer will suit up for the Sooners, though his status remains officially uncertain as of this writing.
If Mateer can’t go, expect this line to shift back toward Texas. However, our model likes Oklahoma regardless of who’s under center, projecting a defensive struggle that favors the Sooners 14-10.
Texas in Freefall
The Longhorns have gone from preseason #1 to unranked in record time – the fastest such fall in AP poll history. After opening with a 14-7 loss to Ohio State, they managed three non-conference wins before last week’s 29-21 setback at Florida ended any remaining illusions about this team’s championship aspirations.
Arch Manning has struggled to live up to his preseason Heisman hype, particularly in big games. Against Ohio State and Florida combined, he threw just three touchdown passes with three interceptions. The running game has been equally disappointing, with Manning actually leading the team in rushing and rushing touchdowns – not what you want from your quarterback.
The offensive line remains a major concern, as evidenced by their inability to establish any ground game against Florida (52 yards on 26 carries). With 10 penalties for 70 yards in that loss, the discipline issues that have plagued this team all season continue to rear their head.
Oklahoma’s Defense Dominates
While questions surround the quarterback position, Oklahoma’s defense needs no introduction. The Sooners rank first nationally in total defense (193.0 yards per game) and second in scoring defense (7.2 points per game), trailing only Ohio State.
R Mason Thomas has been a force off the edge with 3.0 sacks and 5.0 tackles for loss, including a forced safety against Auburn. This unit held Kent State to just 135 total yards last week and has yet to allow more than 17 points in any game this season.
The defensive numbers are staggering: opponents are averaging just 2.4 yards per rush and completing only 52% of their passes. Through five games, they’ve allowed just one passing touchdown. This is exactly the type of defense that can frustrate a Texas offense still searching for its identity.
The Quarterback Situation
If Mateer plays, Oklahoma becomes an even stronger play. Through four games before his injury, he had accumulated over 1,400 total yards with 11 touchdowns, establishing himself as a legitimate Heisman candidate.
Should Michael Hawkins Jr. get the nod, the Sooners still have reason for optimism. Hawkins performed admirably against Kent State with 195 total yards and four touchdowns. More importantly, he has experience in this rivalry, having started last year’s matchup against Texas.
Historical Trends and Current Form
The under has hit in Oklahoma’s last five games, with the Sooners’ defense setting the tone. Meanwhile, Texas is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five Saturday games.
While Texas dominated last year’s meeting 34-3, that game featured a different Texas team with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. This year’s squad has shown none of that dominance, failing to secure a single Power Four win through five weeks.
Oklahoma is receiving 68% of spread bets. The public remembers Texas as the preseason #1 team, but the market has adjusted to reality – this Texas team has serious flaws.
The Pick
Our model projects a low-scoring, defensive battle that favors Oklahoma 14-10. The Sooners’ elite defense should control the tempo against a Texas offense that has managed just 52 rushing yards against its only quality opponent (Florida).
Texas hasn’t proven it can win against legitimate competition, while Oklahoma has already knocked off ranked opponents in Michigan and Auburn. The Sooners are battle-tested, defensively dominant, and catching points in a rivalry game where they’ve won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Even without certainty at quarterback, Oklahoma’s defense alone makes them the right side. We grabbed Oklahoma +3 earlier in the week, but the Sooners remain a strong play at +1.5. In fact, we expect them to win outright in what should be a defensive struggle that stays well under the total.
The Play: Oklahoma +1.5 (-110)
Additional consideration: Under 43 (-110)
The Red River Rivalry has historically produced fireworks, but this year’s edition features two teams heading in opposite directions. Oklahoma’s path to 6-0 runs through a Texas team that has already shown it can’t handle adversity or quality opponents. Take the points with the Sooners, who should win this game straight up.