Ole Miss at Kentucky: Revenge Game Sets Up Perfect Betting Opportunity

The Pick: Ole Miss -10 (betonline MyBookie)
Predicted Score: 38-14 Ole Miss
Game Time: Saturday, September 6, 3:30 PM ET on ABC

The Revenge Factor is Real

Lane Kiffin isn’t hiding his motivation. “Yeah, it was horrible,” Kiffin said during his Zoom with local reporters. “I mean, it was horrible on all fronts because it was such a bizarre game.” Last year’s 20-17 upset loss to Kentucky in Oxford still haunts the Ole Miss head coach, and revenge games in college football carry serious weight.

The Rebels had everything to play for last season – a College Football Playoff berth was within reach before that devastating loss derailed their championship aspirations. For Ole Miss, that loss is what ultimately kept them out of the 12-team playoff. Now ranked No. 21 and coming off a dominant 63-7 victory over Georgia State, the Rebels are primed to make a statement.

Tale of Two Offenses

The offensive disparity between these teams is striking. Ole Miss just dropped 63 points and piled up 695 total yards in their opener, showcasing the explosive capability that makes them dangerous. Quarterback Austin Simmons threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns against Georgia State, proving he’s ready to fill the shoes of departed starter Jaxson Dart.

Meanwhile, Kentucky’s passing attack remains concerning. Zach Calzada’s UK debut wasn’t without moments. He scored a touchdown. He didn’t take a sack. He completed 10 passes. But his final stat line — 10-for-23 for 85 yards, no touchdowns and an interception — reads more like a drive-thru receipt than the output of a seventh-year quarterback about to resume SEC action.

The Wildcats managed just 85 passing yards against Toledo, a Mid-America Conference team. That lack of aerial threat will make it extremely difficult to keep pace with Ole Miss’s high-octane offense.

Kentucky’s Limited Strengths

To Kentucky’s credit, their ground game showed promise with 220 rushing yards against Toledo. Transfer Dante Dowdell had 129 yards including a 79-yard touchdown run, while Seth McGowan added 78 yards. The defense also performed well, limiting Toledo to 59 yards rushing.

However, Mark Stoops said Monday that the staff will work to create more rhythm, and more “layup” throws to build it for Calzada. The fact that they’re still searching for basic rhythm in the passing game heading into SEC play is troubling.

Historical Context Favors a Blowout

While each of the past four meetings between Kentucky and Ole Miss has been decided by three points or less, this feels like the year that trend breaks. The Rebels are motivated, more talented, and facing a Kentucky team that has struggled mightily at home against SEC competition.

Since beating LSU in 2021, Kentucky is just 2-11 against SEC teams at Kroger Field, losing the last seven. That home field disadvantage is real, and Ole Miss has the weapons to exploit it.

The Betting Angle

The 10-point spread perfectly captures the talent gap. Ole Miss has just about everything. Kentucky doesn’t need to win a shootout, but it does need to show it can keep pace in one. Based on what we saw in Week 1, the Wildcats simply can’t.

While I expect he will find some success before the game is over, it may take a while — and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lane Kiffin rely more on Lacy and Diggs early to help him settle in. Even if Kentucky keeps it respectable early, Ole Miss has the depth and explosiveness to pull away in the second half.

Final Analysis

This game represents everything Ole Miss has been building toward since last year’s bitter disappointment. “We spent a lot of time in the offseason on these guys and hopefully, that’ll help,” Kiffin said. The preparation, motivation, and talent advantage all point toward the Rebels covering the double-digit spread.

Kentucky’s season-defining moment comes in Week 2, but their offensive limitations and Ole Miss’s revenge motivation create a perfect storm for the visiting Rebels. Take Ole Miss -10  – this is the spot where Lane Kiffin’s team makes a statement and covers comfortably in a 38-14 victory.