Oregon vs James Madison CFP First Round Preview & Prediction
Saturday, December 20, 2025 | Autzen Stadium | 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Oregon -21 | Total: 49 (MyBookie)
The Oregon Ducks will host the James Madison Dukes in prime time Saturday night as 21-point favorites—the largest spread among the four College Football Playoff games this week. This matchup has generated considerable controversy among college football fans who recognize that the best 12 teams in the nation aren’t necessarily in this year’s playoff bracket.
To be clear, this isn’t James Madison’s fault. The Dukes weren’t selected over more deserving programs—they earned their spot by winning the Sun Belt Conference Championship, which grants one of five automatic bids to the highest-ranked conference champions in the new 12-team format. JMU went 12-1 this season with 11 straight wins heading into this contest. They’ve earned everything they’ve gotten. The question now is whether they can be competitive against one of the nation’s elite programs or if this turns into a blowout.
The Case for James Madison
The Dukes rank near the top of the country in several statistical categories, though we must account for the substantial difference in schedule strength between these two teams.
One metric we reference frequently is the yards per rush attempt differential. Experienced handicappers understand the value of this statistic—control the ground game and you typically control both the game and the clock. Teams with superior rushing differentials often see betting lines move in their favor, and underdog plays fitting this criteria have historically performed well against the spread.
James Madison leads the nation in this category with a yards per rush attempt differential of +3.0. The Dukes are also among the best in the country in rushing offense, averaging nearly 246 yards per game on the ground. However, Oregon isn’t far behind, ranking fourth nationally with a +2.4 differential.
Looking at yards per play differential tells a similar story. JMU ranks fourth nationally at +2.3, but Oregon holds the top spot at +2.9.
The Dukes’ offense has been potent all season. QB Alonza Barnett III has been a dual threat, throwing for over 2,500 yards with 21 touchdowns while also adding 544 rushing yards and 14 scores on the ground. RB Wayne Knight has been even more dominant, piling up over 1,260 rushing yards with 9 touchdowns.
Oregon’s Dominant Resume
The Ducks enter this game riding a six-game winning streak and sporting an 11-1 record. They’ve been one of the most complete teams in college football this year.
Oregon’s offense averages 465 yards and 38.2 points per game. QB Dante Moore has been outstanding, throwing for over 2,700 yards with 24 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions while completing 72.5% of his passes. He’s also shown mobility when needed, adding nearly 200 rushing yards. The ground game has been equally effective, led by two talented backs who have combined for 19 rushing touchdowns.
Defensively, the Ducks allow just 14.8 points per game and rank third nationally against the pass, surrendering only 144.3 passing yards per contest. Oregon permits just 4.48 yards per play—elite numbers that could spell trouble for James Madison’s offense.
When Oregon has faced weaker opponents this year, the results have been lopsided. They beat Montana State (the No. 2 ranked FCS team currently in the FCS semifinals) by a score of 59-13. They demolished Oklahoma State 69-13, handled Oregon State 41-7, routed Rutgers 56-10, and dominated Minnesota 42-13. Even their win over USC was a comfortable 15-point margin.
James Madison’s Reality Check
The Dukes’ stiffest test came against Louisville earlier this season. Louisville finished 8-4 overall (4-4 in ACC play) and handed JMU their only loss. That game was statistically even and tied after three quarters before Louisville pulled away with two unanswered touchdowns in the fourth. The Dukes were sacked six times and managed just 3.4 yards per play compared to Louisville’s 5.0.
Washington State presented another step up in competition for JMU. Despite the Cougars finishing just 6-6, they pushed James Madison to the limit in a 24-20 game that was remarkably even both on the scoreboard and statistically.
These results suggest the Dukes may struggle against Oregon’s speed and athleticism. If the Ducks can bottle up the run, James Madison doesn’t have the passing attack to keep pace with one of the nation’s most balanced offenses.
What Our Model Says
Our predictive model produces interesting results here. Using data from the last 7 games, the model projects a final score of Oregon 33, James Madison 16—which would have the Dukes covering. When we run full season data, the projection shifts to Oregon 33, James Madison 11.
James Madison’s only real path to keeping this competitive is establishing the ground game early, shortening the contest, and perhaps taking some early risks to catch Oregon playing tight. The Dukes have nothing to lose and might try to surprise the home team with an aggressive opening script.
The Pick: OVER 48.5
Oregon is 7-4-1 against the spread this season, while James Madison is 8-5 ATS. The Ducks are heavy favorites for good reason—they’re the more talented team with bigger wins and will have Autzen Stadium rocking in support.
As a college football fan with a kid attending James Madison, I’ll be rooting hard for the Dukes. It would make for a great story if they could keep this respectable.
But as a handicapper who studies these teams and analyzes data week after week, I have a feeling this game gets away from James Madison in the second half.
Our selection here is on the total. With Oregon’s explosive offense likely to put up points in bunches and James Madison’s run-heavy attack capable of sustaining drives and eating clock early, we see enough scoring potential from both sides—especially if the Dukes are forced to open things up late while chasing points.
THE PICK: OVER 48.5