Penn State at Ohio State: Can the Nittany Lions Keep It Close Against the Top-Ranked Buckeyes?
Game Details:
Penn State Nittany Lions (3-4, 0-4 Big Ten) at #1 Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0)
Saturday, November 1, 2025 – 12:00 PM ET
Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
MyBookie Line: Ohio State -20.5, Total: 43.5
What was supposed to be a heavyweight Big Ten showdown has transformed into something entirely different. Penn State enters Columbus riding a four-game losing streak following James Franklin’s dismissal, while Ohio State continues its march toward defending its national championship with an unblemished 7-0 record.
The Case for Penn State +20.5
Despite their 3-4 record and winless Big Ten slate, there’s reason to believe the Nittany Lions can stay within this massive number. The talent that pushed #6 Oregon to overtime before falling 30-24 didn’t disappear overnight. That performance, along with subsequent one-point losses to Iowa and Northwestern, plus a five-point defeat against UCLA, demonstrates this team’s ability to compete even during adversity.
The psychological factor could work in Penn State’s favor here. With Franklin gone and futures uncertain, these players are essentially showcasing themselves for the transfer portal. Every snap becomes an audition, providing extra motivation to perform despite the program’s current turmoil. Don’t expect this group to simply roll over against the defending champions.
Ohio State’s Dominance
The Buckeyes have been nothing short of spectacular this season. Julian Sayin has posted a passer rating above 110.0 in six consecutive games, the longest active streak in FBS. The defense has been even more impressive, allowing just 5.9 points per game to lead the nation, while surrendering only 84.2 rushing yards and 141.2 passing yards per contest.
In their recent 34-0 demolition of Wisconsin, Ohio State showcased both sides of the ball. Sayin completed 36 of 42 passes for 393 yards and four touchdowns, while the defense limited the Badgers to just 144 total yards and a meager 3.1 yards per play. The Buckeyes have held every opponent under 17 points this season and are winning home games by an average margin of 36 points.
The Under Play Worth Considering
Our models project this as a lower-scoring affair than the total suggests, with Ohio State potentially scoring 29 points or fewer. The real value might lie in Penn State’s team total of 10.5 (Under -120). Our projection models have the Nittany Lions scoring six points or less in this matchup.
Penn State’s passing attack ranks 112th nationally and must face an Ohio State defense allowing just 145 yards per game through the air (5th in FBS). The Nittany Lions managed only 93 passing yards against Iowa, with quarterback Ethan Grunkmeyer completing just 15 of 28 attempts with two interceptions. Against a superior Ohio State defense, offensive production could be even more challenging.
Betting Trends and Analysis
Penn State’s average road ATS margin of -14.3 points per game ranks among the worst in FBS, while the Buckeyes have been covering machines at home. The spread appears large, but historical performance suggests Ohio State can handle it.
The Bottom Line
While everything points toward an Ohio State blowout, the gut feeling suggests Penn State covers this substantial spread. The combination of talented players fighting for their futures and the unpredictable nature of rivalry games could keep this closer than expected. The Nittany Lions showed they could hang with elite competition when they took Oregon to overtime, and that talent hasn’t vanished.
Best Bet: Penn State +20.5
Secondary Play: Penn State Team Total Under 10.5 (-120)
The smart money recognizes that while Ohio State should win comfortably, three touchdowns is a significant margin even against a struggling opponent. Penn State’s pride and the players’ individual motivations should keep this game competitive enough to cover the spread, even if the final result never truly threatens the Buckeyes’ perfect season.