Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky CFB Pick – 8-23-25

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Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston CFB Free Pick
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The 2025 college football season kicks off with a Conference USA (CUSA) matchup as the Sam Houston Bearkats travel to face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky, on Saturday, August 23, at 7:00 PM EST.
From a betting perspective, this game presents a compelling case for backing Sam Houston +8.5, given our model’s prediction of a razor-thin margin and the Bearkats’ strong revenge motive.
  • Date and Time: Saturday, August 23, 2025, at 7:00 PM EST
  • Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY
  • Spread: Western Kentucky -8.5
  • Total: Not yet posted
  • Model Prediction: Western Kentucky 15, Sam Houston 14
The current spread of Western Kentucky -8.5 suggests the Hilltoppers are expected to win by a comfortable margin, but our model, based on the last seven games of the 2024 season, projects a one-point victory for Western Kentucky. This discrepancy highlights potential value in betting on Sam Houston to cover the spread, as the game seems likely to be much closer than the odds indicate.

Recent Head-to-Head History

 

Western Kentucky won the two recent meetings:
  • 2024: Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14 (October 16, 2024, at Sam Houston)
  • 2023: Western Kentucky 28, Sam Houston 23 (October 18, 2023, at Western Kentucky)
While the 2024 game saw Western Kentucky pull away for a 17-point victory, the 2023 matchup was a one-possession game, decided by just five points. These results suggest that, despite Western Kentucky’s recent edge, Sam Houston has shown the ability to compete, especially in tighter contests.
The double revenge angle is significant here, as Sam Houston will be highly motivated to overturn these losses, particularly playing at Western Kentucky again. This motivation could translate into a more focused effort, especially in a season opener where early intensity can make a difference.

Team Performance in 2024

 

Both teams had solid 2024 seasons, finishing with identical 6-2 records in CUSA play, but their overall records and postseason results varied:

  • Sam Houston Bearkats: Finished 10-3 overall, 6-2 CUSA, and won the New Orleans Bowl 31-26 against Georgia Southern. The Bearkats became bowl eligible after a 10-7 road win against FIU on October 22, 2024, marking a strong second year in the FBS.

     

  • Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Ended 8-6 overall, 6-2 CUSA, but lost the Boca Raton Bowl 27-17 to James Madison. The Hilltoppers started 3-0 in conference play but stumbled late, losing their final two games, including the CUSA Championship Game.
  • Sam Houston’s Last Seven Regular Season Games (Games 6-12):
    • vs UTEP (W 42-24)
    • vs Western Kentucky (L 14-31)
    • at FIU (W 10-7)
    • vs Jacksonville State (W 35-28)
    • at Liberty (L 21-42)
    • vs Louisiana Tech (W 34-27)
    • at Middle Tennessee (W 31-28)
    • Record: 5-2, with losses to Western Kentucky and Liberty, but strong wins in their final three games, showcasing late-season resilience.
  • Western Kentucky’s Last Seven Regular Season Games (Games 6-12):
    • vs FIU (W 41-24)
    • at Sam Houston (W 31-14)
    • vs Kennesaw State (W 31-14)
    • at New Mexico State (W 41-28)
    • vs Louisiana Tech (L 7-12)
    • at Liberty (L 21-38)
    • vs Jacksonville State (W 19-17)
    • Record: 5-2, with losses to Louisiana Tech and Liberty, but victories over Sam Houston and other CUSA foes, indicating consistency but vulnerability against certain opponents.

Both teams went 5-2 in their final seven regular season games, underscoring their competitiveness and parity heading into 2025. Sam Houston’s bowl win (their 13th game) further bolsters their momentum, while Western Kentucky’s late-season struggles, including a 52-12 loss in the CUSA Championship, suggest potential vulnerabilities.

 

Key Betting Angles

 

Several factors support backing Sam Houston +8.5:

  1. Double Revenge Angle: Sam Houston’s losses to Western Kentucky in 2023 and 2024, particularly the 31-14 defeat in 2024, provide a clear motivational factor. Playing at Western Kentucky again, the Bearkats will be eager to start the 2025 season with a statement win, leveraging their recent bowl success and late-season surge. Revenge games often see underdogs rise to the occasion, and Sam Houston’s 10-3 record in 2024 suggests they have the talent to compete.

     

  2. Model vs. Spread Discrepancy: The model’s 15-14 prediction implies a game decided by a field goal or less, well within the +8.5 spread for Sam Houston. Given both teams’ 5-2 records in their last seven games, the spread seems inflated, possibly due to Western Kentucky’s home-field advantage and past wins, but the evidence leans toward a closer contest.

     

  3. Season Opener Dynamics: As the first game of the season, both teams may experience early-season rust, with offenses potentially struggling to find rhythm. However, Sam Houston’s motivation to avenge past losses could give them an edge in effort and focus, while Western Kentucky, coming off a disappointing end to 2024, might not be as sharp as the spread suggests.

     

  4. Historical Spread Trends: While Western Kentucky won by 17 in 2024, that game was at Sam Houston, and the 2023 game at Western Kentucky was a five-point margin. This suggests Sam Houston can compete, especially in a neutral or closer context, and the current spread may not fully account for their resilience.

Conclusion and Betting Recommendation

 

It’s important to note that both teams have a ton of new faces and if that’s not enough, Sam Houston brings in a new coach for the 2025 season.

All of this mostly eliminates any reliability of our model’s prediction. Early season college football handicapping can be tricky. Even more so since the transfer portal and the paying of college players came into play.

But it’s not just tricky for handicappers, it can be a challenge for the bookmakers as well.

We still think there’s value with the underdog here getting +8.5. It’s simply too many points considering all of the new faces on both sides.

Sam Houston +8.5

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