San Diego State at Washington State: Betting Preview & Analysis
Game Details:
- Teams: San Diego State (1-0) at Washington State (1-0)
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025 | 7:25 PM ET
- Location: Gesa Field, Pullman, Washington
- TV: The CW
- Spread: Washington State -1.5 MyBookie
- Total: 45 points
The Storylines
This matchup represents more than just another non-conference clash—it’s a preview of future Pac-12 rivals, as both schools are set to join the reconstituted conference. The game also marks Washington State’s homecoming weekend under first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers, who brought massive roster turnover to Pullman after guiding South Dakota State to an FCS National Championship in 2023.
Washington State: New Era, Same Stadium
The Cougars enter this contest having barely escaped Idaho with a 13-10 win that required a 32-yard field goal from Jack Stevens with just three seconds remaining. The narrow win exposed significant concerns about Rogers’ rebuilt roster, which features a staggering 75 newcomers and only three returning starters—all on offense.
Offensive Concerns Mount
Redshirt sophomore quarterback Jaxon Potter won a four-way competition for the starting job but showed inconsistency in his debut. Potter was 23-for-30 for 208 yards in his debut but struggled with rhythm outside of one second-quarter touchdown drive to Joshua Meredith. Most telling was the Cougars’ anemic ground game, which netted only three yards on 22 carries against an FCS opponent.
The offensive line’s communication issues were evident early, as Rogers lamented a lack of communication and mishaps on the offensive line after a scoreless first quarter which failed even to produce a first down. Running backs Kirby Vorhees (6 carries, 19 yards) and Angel Johnson (10 carries, 2 yards) found no running lanes against Idaho’s defense.
Defensive Bright Spots
Washington State’s defense performed adequately against Idaho, holding the Vandals to 221 total yards while forcing two crucial fumbles. Graduate linebacker Caleb Francl led the defense with 11 tackles, while the secondary showed promise with safety Matthew Durrance contributing nine tackles.
However, the defense did struggle against Idaho’s option attack, allowing 188 yards on the ground and failing to sack quarterback Joshua Wood, who rushed for 101 yards on 12 carries.
San Diego State: Dominant Debut
The Aztecs opened their season with authority, achieving a 42-0 win, marking their first shutout since August 31, 2019 against Stony Brook. More impressively, the Aztecs outgained Stony Brook by a staggering 369 yards, showcasing both offensive efficiency and defensive dominance.
Statistical Superiority
Following their shutout win, SDSU leads the nation in scoring defense (0.00) and has impressive rankings in multiple defensive categories. While this came against an overmatched opponent, the comprehensive nature of the performance suggests the Aztecs are well-prepared and executing at a high level.
Series History and Motivation
Washington State holds a 2-1 series advantage, including a 29-26 win over the Aztecs in San Diego last season. This will mark the first meeting of the series in Pullman, giving the home team a potential edge in unfamiliar territory for San Diego State.
The Aztecs will be motivated to avenge last year’s defeat and prove themselves against their future conference rival. The significance isn’t lost on either program, as this matchup marks a significant clash as SDSU prepares to join the Pac-12 next year, alongside their opponent, Washington State.
Betting Analysis
The Spread: Washington State -1.5
This line suggests oddsmakers view these teams as essentially even, with minimal home-field advantage factored in. However, several factors point toward the Aztecs being undervalued:
Concerns with Washington State:
- Massive roster turnover with 75 new players creates chemistry and communication issues
- Struggling offensive line that couldn’t establish any ground game against Idaho
- Potter’s inconsistent play outside of one drive
- Defense allowed significant rushing yards to an FCS option attack
Strengths of San Diego State:
- Dominant season opener showing preparation and execution
- Experienced roster with continuity from last season
- Defensive unit that completely shut down their opponent
- Motivation to prove themselves in a revenge game
Pick: San Diego State +1.5 – The Aztecs’ roster stability and dominant opener contrast sharply with Washington State’s growing pains. Even in a hostile environment, San Diego State appears better prepared for this level of competition.
The Total: Over/Under 45
This remarkably low total reflects expectations of defensive struggles and offensive inefficiency, particularly from Washington State’s rebuilt unit.
Factors Supporting the Under:
- Washington State’s offensive line issues and non-existent running game
- Potter’s inconsistency in his starting debut
- San Diego State’s impressive defensive showing
- Both teams potentially playing conservatively in an important early-season matchup
Factors Supporting the Over:
- Potter showed flashes and could improve with more game experience
- San Diego State’s offense looked explosive in their opener
- Homecoming atmosphere could energize the Cougars
- Desperation plays if Washington State falls behind
Pick: Under 45 – Washington State’s offensive struggles against Idaho are concerning, and San Diego State’s defense appears legitimately strong. Expect a grinding, low-scoring affair as the Cougars’ new system continues to find its identity.
Final Prediction
San Diego State’s superior preparation, roster continuity, and dominant opener should translate into a road win. While Washington State has the home crowd advantage, their offensive line issues and overall team chemistry problems exposed against Idaho won’t be easily fixed in one week.
Final Score Prediction: San Diego State 24, Washington State 17 Best Bets: San Diego State +1.5, Under 45