SMU at Clemson: Under 55.5 Points Looks Like the Play
Saturday’s ACC showdown between SMU and Clemson at Memorial Stadium represents a rematch of last year’s conference championship game, though neither squad appears destined for Charlotte this December. The Tigers prevailed 34-31 on a last-second field goal in that thriller, but this year’s meeting features two teams heading in different directions.
Tale of Two Conference Records
The Mustangs enter at 4-2 overall and 2-0 in ACC play, maintaining their perfect conference record after dismantling Stanford 34-10 in their most recent outing. Meanwhile, Clemson sits at 3-3 overall with a 2-2 conference mark following consecutive double-digit spread covers against North Carolina and Boston College.
Despite the .500 record, the Tigers’ underlying metrics paint a more favorable picture. Clemson’s numbers grade out better than SMU’s across multiple categories, particularly impressive considering they’ve navigated a schedule nearly 10 points tougher than what the Mustangs have faced.
Common Thread: Struggles Against Quality
Both teams have shown vulnerability against legitimate competition. SMU dropped games to Baylor and TCU – the latter covering as nearly a touchdown favorite with a 35-24 win. Clemson’s losses came to LSU, Georgia Tech, and a puzzling setback at Syracuse that still raises eyebrows.
The Tigers have found their footing recently, taking care of business against conference bottom-feeders. They’ve outscored North Carolina and Boston College by a combined margin while covering hefty double-digit spreads in both contests.
Statistical Breakdown
SMU’s offense generates 34.0 points per game while averaging 127.0 rushing yards, ranking 100th nationally in that department. The Mustangs have accumulated 2,429 total yards through six games, with quarterback Kevin Jennings directing an attack that’s produced 15 passing touchdowns against nine on the ground.
Defensively, SMU allows 22.3 points per contest (56th nationally) and 423.2 total yards per game (120th). They’ve been particularly vulnerable through the air, surrendering 315.8 passing yards per game while ranking 134th against the pass.
Clemson’s defense has been the cornerstone of their recent success, allowing just 18.5 points per game (29th nationally). The Tigers permit 217.5 passing yards and 104.8 rushing yards per contest, creating a stingy unit that’s forced seven turnovers this season.
Offensively, the Tigers average 26.3 points and 408.8 total yards per game. Quarterback Cade Klubnik, who left the Boston College game briefly but confirmed he’ll be ready for Saturday, leads an aerial attack averaging 278.8 passing yards per game (25th nationally).
Betting Trends and Line Movement
The Tigers opened as 10-point favorites at some shops before settling at -9.5 at MyBookie with a total of 55.5. Early action showed even money distribution but slightly more bets backing Clemson at 57%.
From an against-the-spread perspective, SMU enters just 1-5 ATS this season, failing to reward backers consistently. Clemson started 0-4 ATS before covering their last two as heavy favorites against inferior ACC competition.
The total presents an interesting angle. SMU games have gone under in five of six contests, while four of Clemson’s six games have stayed under the number.
The Pick: Under 55.5
Our models align perfectly with the posted line, projecting scores of 28-18 and 25-16 in Clemson’s favor. Both projections land comfortably under the 55.5 total, making this our recommended play.
The combination of Clemson’s defensive prowess (allowing under 19 points per game) and both teams’ recent tendency toward lower-scoring affairs supports the under.
While Clemson should handle business at home as near-double-digit favorites, expect a grind-it-out ACC battle that stays well under the posted total. The under 55.5 points offers the best value in this Saturday afternoon ACC matchup.