
South Carolina at LSU: SEC Showdown in Death Valley
October 11, 2025 | 6:45 PM CT | Tiger Stadium | SEC Network
The No. 11 LSU Tigers (4-1, 1-1 SEC) return to Tiger Stadium on Saturday night looking to bounce back from their Week 5 setback against Ole Miss when they host the South Carolina Gamecocks (3-2, 1-2 SEC). After a bye week to regroup, Brian Kelly’s squad enters as 8.5-point favorites with the total set at 44 points at MyBookie.
The Betting Landscape
The Tigers opened as double-digit favorites at some books but have settled in at -8.5, suggesting some early support for the Gamecocks. The low total of 44 points reflects concerns about both teams’ offensive production, particularly LSU’s struggles to generate consistent scoring this season.
LSU’s Quest for Offensive Consistency
The Tigers’ defense has been the strength of this team through five games, ranking among the nation’s best in limiting opponents in the second half. They’re tied for 7th nationally in holding opponents to just 4.8 points per game in the second half and tied for 8th in third-quarter defense, allowing only 1.4 points per frame.
However, the offense has been a different story. In their loss to Ole Miss, the Tigers managed just 254 total yards with only 197 through the air. They converted just 2 of 11 third-down attempts and recorded only 16 first downs. Most concerning is that LSU has scored more than 23 points just once this season – a glaring issue for a program with championship aspirations.
Garrett Nussmeier completed 21 of 34 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Rebels. The ground game was virtually non-existent, and the offensive line struggled to create consistent opportunities. The bye week provided Kelly and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock time to address these issues, but execution remains the key question mark.
South Carolina’s Defensive Identity
The Gamecocks rebounded from back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt (31-7) and Missouri (29-20) with an impressive 35-13 win over Kentucky. That performance showcased their defensive capabilities, forcing four turnovers while limiting the Wildcats to just 14 first downs.
LaNorris Sellers has shown dual-threat capability at quarterback, completing 11 of 14 passes for 153 yards while leading the team with 81 rushing yards on 14 carries against Kentucky. However, the passing game remains limited, with Vandrevius Jacobs (5 catches, 108 yards) being the only receiver with multiple receptions in that contest.
The numbers paint a challenging picture for the Gamecocks’ offense. They rank 127th nationally in total offense (308.6 yards per game) and 122nd in rushing offense (99.8 yards per game). Against Missouri, they managed negative-9 rushing yards while converting just 3 of 11 third downs and committing 14 penalties for 98 yards.
Trends and Historical Context
LSU has dominated this series historically, though recent meetings have been competitive affairs. The Tigers are looking to avoid their first two-game losing streak under Kelly, while South Carolina seeks its first signature road win of the season.
The under has been a profitable play in LSU games this season, hitting in 4 of their 5 contests. Both teams have shown defensive prowess while struggling to consistently move the ball and finish drives. With LSU scoring more than 23 points just once and South Carolina averaging under 309 yards per game, points figure to be at a premium.
The Handicap
Against the Spread: While LSU’s offensive struggles are concerning, their defense should dominate a South Carolina offense that ranks near the bottom of FBS in production. The Gamecocks’ negative rushing performance against Missouri and overall offensive limitations suggest they’ll struggle to sustain drives against an elite Tigers defense. However, laying more than a touchdown with an LSU offense that has yet to prove it can consistently score seems risky.
Lean: South Carolina +8.5 – Take the points in what projects as a defensive struggle. LSU should win, but covering a number this large requires offensive execution they haven’t demonstrated.
Total: Both defenses are playing at a high level, and neither offense has shown the explosiveness to break this game open. LSU’s inability to score more than 23 points in all but one game, combined with South Carolina’s offensive limitations and strong defensive showing against Kentucky, points toward a low-scoring affair.
Selection: Under 44 – In a game where field position and turnovers could determine the outcome, expect both teams to play conservatively. The defenses should control the tempo, making the under the stronger play.
Final Thoughts
Saturday night in Death Valley presents an opportunity for LSU to prove their offense can complement their championship-caliber defense. For South Carolina, keeping this game close would represent significant progress under Shane Beamer. With both teams featuring strong defenses and questionable offenses, expect a grinding SEC battle where every possession matters. The Tigers should prevail at home, but don’t expect style points in what shapes up as a defensive slugfest.