South Florida at Memphis: AAC Showdown with Major Conference Implications
Saturday, October 25, 2025 | 12:00 PM ET | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium | ESPN2
The Matchup
Two AAC contenders with nearly identical records collide in Memphis this Saturday as the South Florida Bulls (6-1, 3-0 AAC) take on the Memphis Tigers (6-1, 2-1 AAC). With South Florida sitting as 5.5-point road favorites at MyBookie and a total set at 62, this conference showdown carries massive implications for the AAC championship race.
Both programs have built their impressive records against relatively soft schedules, but each has proven they can compete with Power 5 competition. South Florida stunned Florida earlier this season, while Memphis knocked off Arkansas 32-31. However, recent performances paint two different pictures heading into this matchup.
Tale of Two Teams
South Florida enters this contest riding high after rattling off four consecutive games with 48+ points scored. The Bulls’ lone setback came in a 49-12 road loss to Miami, but they’ve responded with dominant offensive performances against conference foes. Their attack has been among the nation’s most efficient units since mid-September, ranking in the top 15 across major offensive categories.
Memphis, on the other hand, is reeling from an inexplicable 31-24 loss to UAB as 21-point favorites. The Tigers were outgained 470-362 yards and surrendered 5.3 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per pass in a defensive performance that raised serious concerns. Making matters worse, quarterback Brendon Lewis suffered a lower body injury in that contest and was spotted using crutches on the sideline. His status remains uncertain for Saturday, which explains why the line has moved from South Florida -3.5 at open to as high as -5.5 at some books. Lewis is listed as day to day.
Statistical Breakdown
The Bulls bring an elite defense that has been particularly stout over the past five weeks. They rank first nationally in PPA (predicted points added) per rush allowed during that span and sit in the top 15 for points allowed per quality drive, standard downs PPA, and passing downs PPA since Week 4. This defensive prowess will be crucial against Memphis’ three-headed rushing attack featuring Sutton Smith, Greg Desrosiers Jr., and Frank Peasant.
South Florida also boasts a top-10 ranking in turnover margin this season, creating extra possessions for their explosive offense. Meanwhile, Memphis has struggled defensively since Week 4, ranking 101st in PPA per play allowed and 87th in points allowed per quality drive.
The Tigers typically operate at a below-average tempo, ranking 101st in seconds per play against FBS opponents. Without a fully healthy Lewis, who leads the team in carries and rushing touchdowns, that pace could slow even further.
First Half Analysis
Our first-half model projects South Florida ahead approximately 20-17 at the break. With the first-half line sitting at South Florida -2.5 and a total of 30.5, the side offers minimal value. However, the over 30.5 appears worth consideration given both teams’ offensive capabilities when healthy.
Second Half Edge
Interestingly, our second-half model shows Memphis outscoring South Florida 16-7 after halftime. DraftKings has already posted an identical second-half line of South Florida -2.5 with a total of 30.5. This creates potential value on Memphis +2.5 for the second half and the under 30.5, particularly if the Tigers make necessary adjustments following their disappointing performance against UAB.
Betting Angles
The question of Lewis’s health looms large over this matchup. If he’s unable to go or significantly limited, Memphis loses considerable explosiveness in both the passing and rushing games. The market’s reaction suggests pessimism about his availability, with the line movement favoring South Florida throughout the week.
Computer simulations give South Florida a 61% win probability compared to 39% for Memphis, projecting a final score around 32-27 in favor of the Bulls. This aligns closely with the current spread, though the total might offer more value depending on Lewis’s status.
The Pick
South Florida’s offensive momentum combined with Memphis’ defensive struggles and quarterback uncertainty make the Bulls the rightside even laying 5.5 points on the road. The Tigers desperately need a bounce-back performance after their stunning loss to UAB, but facing a red-hot South Florida team without a fully healthy Lewis presents a difficult challenge.
Look for South Florida to control this game with their balanced attack and opportunistic defense. The Bulls have championship aspirations and understand the importance of this conference road test. While Memphis has the talent to keep this close at home, the current form and health concerns tilt this matchup firmly in South Florida’s favor.
Best Bets:
- South Florida -5.5 (available at MyBookie)
- First Half Over 30.5
- Second Half: Memphis +2.5 (if available at halftime)
- Check Brendon Lewis status