South Florida vs Miami: The Case for the Bulls
Saturday, September 13, 2025 | 4:30 PM ET | Hard Rock Stadium
The college football world is buzzing about Saturday’s South Florida Bulls and Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium. While Miami enters as overwhelming 17.5-point favorites with MyBookie setting the total at 56, our modeling suggests bettors should look beyond the surface numbers consider backing the Bulls.
A Different Bulls Team
Last season’s 50-15 Miami victory over South Florida feels like ancient history when examining these 2025 rosters. The Bulls have undergone a remarkable transformation, opening their campaign with statement victories over Boise State (34-7) and Florida (18-16) – both teams that entered those contests ranked. This isn’t the same South Florida program that got steamrolled by the Hurricanes twelve months ago.
USF’s rise under its current staff has been sudden and dramatic, and quarterback Byrum Brown has been the catalyst. In game two versus Florida last weekend, the Bulls were up 15-9 by the end of the third quarter and ended up pulling off a stellar road upset 18-16. Brown threw for 263 yards and a score while also leading the rush with 17 carries for 66 yards.
The Bulls aren’t just winning – they’re dominating in crucial moments. South Florida ranks 9th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+11.5), showcasing their ability to take control when games hang in the balance.
Miami’s Misleading Dominance
The Hurricanes certainly look impressive on paper with a 2-0 start, but their résumé deserves scrutiny. Yes, they beat Notre Dame 27-24 in their opener, but that victory required hanging on after blowing a 21-7 fourth-quarter lead. Their 45-3 destruction of Bethune-Cookman tells us little about their readiness for quality opposition.
Carson Beck has been steady at quarterback with 472 passing yards and four touchdowns through two games, finding reliable targets in Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels. However, Miami is 1-1 against the spread after failing to cover against Bethune Cookman – a concerning trend for a team laying nearly three touchdowns.
Why the Spread is Too Generous
Our model, factoring in current season performance and late-season data from 2024, projects this game much closer than the market suggests. The 17.5-point spread appears inflated for several key reasons:
1. South Florida’s Elite Third-Quarter Performance South Florida ranks 9th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+11.5), indicating their ability to make crucial adjustments and maintain composure in tight games.
2. Proven Upset Ability USF is 2-0 against the spread. They have won outright as underdogs twice in a row, demonstrating their knack for exceeding expectations against ranked opponents.
3. College Football Playoff Implications South Florida has overtaken Tulane as the top Group of Five team. The Bulls were chosen unanimously to earn the Group of Five spot in the CFP after Week 2 results. This recognition brings added motivation and confidence to a Bulls squad that believes they belong on the biggest stage.
4. Historical Context South Florida is attempting to become the first team since the 1987 Miami national championship team to begin the season with three consecutive wins over ranked opponents. The symmetry of potentially achieving this feat against Miami adds narrative weight to their upset bid.
The X-Factor: Byrum Brown’s Dual-Threat Ability
Brown’s versatility gives South Florida a dimension Miami hasn’t faced this season. Brown leads the Bulls in both passing and rushing yards and he will try to make big plays again in this game both with his arm and legs. Against Florida, he showcased this balance perfectly, contributing through the air while providing crucial rushing production when needed.
This dual-threat capability could prove particularly troublesome for a Miami defense that will need to account for Brown’s mobility while also respecting South Florida’s improving ground game.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Play: South Florida +17.5 The generous spread creates exceptional value on a Bulls team that has consistently outperformed expectations. Even if Miami wins, the margin of victory projects closer to 10-14 points based on our modeling.
Total Considerations: Under 56 Both teams have shown defensive improvements this season, and South Florida’s methodical offensive approach suggests a slower-paced game. South Florida ranks 129th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (24:43), but their efficiency in crucial moments could limit total possessions.
The Bottom Line
While Miami enters as the betting favorite and higher-ranked team, South Florida represents one of the best upset opportunities in Week 3. The Bulls have already proven they can compete with – and defeat – ranked opponents on the road. Playing with house money and championship aspirations, this isn’t a program content to simply keep it close.
Our model suggests backing South Florida +17.5 represents exceptional value in a game that projects much closer to a 7-10 point Miami victory. The Bulls have the talent, coaching, and motivation to potentially deliver yet another upset.