TCU at BYU: Cougars Look to Bounce Back in Provo
Saturday, November 15, 2025
LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
10:15 PM ET on ESPN
Line: BYU -4.5 | Total: 52.5
The Setup
After opening as 6-point favorites, BYU has been bet down to -4.5 this week as both sharp money and public action have come in on TCU. The adjustment reflects legitimate questions about the Cougars following their 29-7 loss to Texas Tech, a game that exposed potential weaknesses in what had been an undefeated season.
Both teams enter Saturday night needing to regroup from disappointing defeats. TCU dropped a 20-17 heartbreaker at home to Iowa State after leading into the fourth quarter, while BYU’s perfect season and top-10 playoff ranking came crashing down in Lubbock. The stage is set for a critical Big 12 matchup under the lights in Provo, where altitude and cold November conditions could play a significant role.
Statistical Breakdown
Both squads rank similarly in crucial metrics like yards per rush attempt and yards per play differentials. Where BYU does separate itself is in defensive efficiency, posting 17.4 defensive yards per point compared to TCU’s 14.2 – a sign of their ability to bend without breaking in critical situations.
BYU’s defense ranks among the nation’s best in red zone efficiency, allowing scores on less than 73% of opponent trips inside the 20-yard line. They’ve forced 16 turnovers this season, with 12 coming via interception. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker and defensive lineman Jack Kelly anchor a front seven that has consistently disrupted opposing offenses, combining for impressive tackle totals and multiple turnovers in coverage.
The Horned Frogs counter with an offense that has averaged 34.6 points per game but faces a significant challenge without a consistent ground attack. TCU ranks just 108th nationally in rushing offense at 124 yards per game, a weakness that could prove costly against a BYU defense allowing only 129.4 rushing yards per contest.
Key Matchups
The critical battle will be TCU quarterback Josh Hoover against BYU’s opportunistic secondary. Hoover has been forced to carry the offense through the air, but the combination of Provo’s altitude, cold weather, and a late kickoff creates challenging conditions for a passing-heavy attack. BYU’s safeties Faletau Satuala and Tanner Wall have combined for multiple interceptions and over 100 tackles, patrolling the secondary with range and physicality.
For BYU, freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has exceeded expectations, averaging over 200 passing yards and 45 rushing yards per game while leading the offense to 33 points per contest. His dual-threat ability gives the Cougars an added dimension that TCU’s defense must account for. Running back LJ Martin remains the workhorse with 840 yards on the ground through nine games, shouldering the load with 135 more carries than any other BYU back.
The receiving matchup to watch features BYU’s Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston against a TCU secondary that has allowed 257.9 passing yards per game. Roberts excels at beating man coverage on the outside with strong jump-ball skills, while Kingston works from the slot to find soft spots in zone coverage.
The Model’s Take
Our proprietary model projects a more decisive outcome than the current spread suggests, predicting a 31-21 BYU win – a full 10-point margin. This aligns with the Cougars’ home-field advantage in Provo, where the combination of altitude and crowd noise has historically created problems for visiting teams.
The model factors in BYU’s superior defensive efficiency metrics and TCU’s one-dimensional offensive approach. Without a reliable rushing attack to control clock and keep BYU’s offense off the field, the Horned Frogs may struggle to sustain drives, particularly if they fall behind early and become even more predictable.
Revenge Factor
While player turnover limits the direct revenge narrative, head coach Kalani Sitake certainly remembers TCU’s 44-11 demolition of his team in 2023. That embarrassing defeat in the only recent meeting between these programs provides additional motivation for a BYU squad already desperate to prove their success hasn’t been a fluke following the Texas Tech loss.
The Pick
BYU enters this game with everything to prove. Their most impressive win before last week came against a quality Utah team, with additional wins over Iowa State and Arizona validating their resume. However, questions about schedule strength persist, and another poor performance would essentially eliminate any remaining playoff hopes while damaging their Big 12 title game positioning.
The Cougars will respond well to adversity at home. The environment in Provo, combined with TCU’s offensive limitations and travel fatigue, creates too many obstacles for the Horned Frogs to overcome. BYU’s defense will force Hoover into uncomfortable situations, while Bachmeier and Martin control the game on the ground.
Weather conditions favor the home team’s physical rushing attack over TCU’s aerial assault. ESPN analyst Greg McElroy noted that the late kickoff, high altitude, and cold conditions create a difficult recipe for passing success, particularly for a team traveling from sea level.
The Play: BYU -4.5
Our model’s 10-point projected margin provides comfortable coverage cushion, even accounting for potential late-game scenarios. BYU needs to win convincingly to maintain their Big 12 championship aspirations, and they’ll deliver a statement performance in front of their home crowd. Take the Cougars to cover the 4.5 points in what should be a controlled, methodical win that restores confidence heading into the final weeks of the regular season.