Tennessee at Alabama: Third Saturday in October Brings Contrasting Styles
Game Details:
Tennessee Volunteers (5-1) at Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1)
Saturday, October 18, 2025
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
TV: ABC
MyBookie Line: Alabama -8.5, Total: 59
The Ground Game Edge
This matchup presents a fascinating contrast that goes beyond traditional Alabama dominance. The Volunteers bring the nation’s 13th-ranked rushing attack differential at +1.9 yards per attempt into Bryant-Denny Stadium, where they’ll face an Alabama defense that’s been surprisingly vulnerable on the ground this season. The Crimson Tide’s rushing differential sits at -1.1, ranking 107th nationally – a statistic that would have been unthinkable in previous years under Nick Saban’s regime.
Tennessee enters this contest averaging 210 rushing yards per game, good for 22nd nationally. Their ground attack has been the backbone of their offense, particularly when Joey Aguilar and the passing game face pressure. Meanwhile, Alabama has surrendered 156.7 yards per game on the ground, including 8 rushing touchdowns through six games. This matchup in the trenches could keep the Volunteers within striking distance throughout the contest.
Alabama’s Aerial Attack vs Tennessee’s Vulnerable Secondary
Where Alabama holds a significant advantage is through the air. Ty Simpson has been exceptional since the Week 1 loss to Florida State, leading the Tide to wins over three consecutive ranked opponents. The Crimson Tide rank 6th in points per passing attempt and 7th on passing downs over the past five weeks, averaging 304.5 passing yards per game this season.
Tennessee’s pass defense represents their Achilles’ heel, ranking 97th in points per passing attempt and 108th on passing downs over the same five-week span. The Volunteers have allowed a 66.5% completion rate and surrendered 257.8 passing yards per game. Their secondary issues have been compounded by injuries to key defensive backs Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson, leaving them particularly vulnerable to Alabama’s aerial assault.
Betting Trends and Historical Context
The historical trends paint a challenging picture for Tennessee backers. The Volunteers are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings with Alabama and haven’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2003. However, they have taken two of the last three meetings overall, both by single digits in Knoxville.
Alabama enters as a hot betting commodity, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games and 6-0 ATS in their last six home contests. The Tide are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Week 8 games. Tennessee, conversely, has struggled to cover lately, going just 2-3-1 ATS this season and failing to cover since Week 2.
Tempo and Total Considerations
The pace of play could be crucial to the total. Tennessee operates at the third-fastest tempo nationally, running plays every 21.5 seconds. Alabama takes a more deliberate approach at 29 seconds per snap, ranking 115th. The Tide have shown an ability to sustain lengthy drives, including multiple possessions exceeding seven minutes in recent games against Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Missouri.
This methodical approach, combined with Alabama’s top-20 red zone defense, could limit possessions and scoring opportunities. The under has value at the current number, particularly if Alabama controls the tempo and keeps Tennessee’s explosive offense on the sidelines.
Discipline and Road Woes
Tennessee’s lack of discipline could prove costly under the lights in Tuscaloosa. The Volunteers rank 110th nationally with 7.6 penalties per game, accumulating 380 penalty yards through six contests. In their only true road game this season at Mississippi State, they committed three turnovers despite winning in overtime. The hostile environment at Bryant-Denny Stadium will only amplify these issues.
The Pick: Tennessee +8.5
While our two strongest score prediction models favor Alabama by 10-15 points, the rushing matchup creates enough uncertainty to warrant backing the underdog. Tennessee’s ground game differential of +1.9 facing Alabama’s -1.1 represents the type of statistical mismatch that typically produces closer games than expected.
The Volunteers have shown resilience this season, winning three straight despite some shaky moments. They needed overtime at Mississippi State and let Arkansas back into the game last week, but they found ways to win both contests. If Tennessee can establish their running game early and control the clock, they should stay within the number.
Alabama will likely win this game at home – they’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against the Volunteers and have dominated this series historically. However, Tennessee’s ability to run the football and keep drives alive should prevent this from becoming the blowout our models project.
Best Bet: Tennessee +8.5