Texas A&M vs Notre Dame Betting Preview: Saturday Night Showdown in South Bend
Game Details:
- Date: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
- TV: NBC/Peacock
- Spread: Notre Dame -7 (MyBookie)
- Total: 49.5
The Setup
Notre Dame enters this primetime home opener looking to bounce back from a disappointing 27-24 season-opening loss to Miami. Despite being favored by 2.5 points in that contest, the Irish couldn’t close the deal on the road, allowing a late field goal that sealed their fate. Now, sitting at 0-1, they face a hungry Texas A&M squad that has looked dominant through two games.
The Aggies arrive in South Bend riding high at 2-0, having dismantled UTSA 42-24 and Utah State 44-22. Their explosive offense, averaging 43 points per game, presents a significant test for a Notre Dame defense that showed vulnerabilities against Miami’s attack.
Texas A&M’s Offensive Explosion
Marcel Reed has been nothing short of spectacular for the Aggies, posting a 120+ passer rating in consecutive games. Against Utah State, Reed completed 19 of 28 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns while adding a rushing score. The dual-threat quarterback left that game early with a minor injury, but head coach Mike Elko confirmed he expects Reed to be “fine for next week.”
The Aggies’ ground game has been equally impressive, with Le’Veon Moss contributing 68 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries against Utah State. In the receiving corps, Mario Craver has emerged as a reliable target with five catches for 114 yards and a touchdown, while KC Concepcion has been a red-zone threat with six receptions for 73 yards and two scores.
Most concerning for Notre Dame’s defense is Texas A&M’s perfect red zone efficiency (100%) and their ability to score in every quarter of both games. The Aggies have shown they can maintain offensive pressure throughout the entire contest.
Notre Dame’s Redemption Quest
Despite the season-opening setback, Notre Dame showed flashes of their potential against Miami. CJ Carr demonstrated poise in the pocket, completing 19 of 30 passes for 221 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing score. His 100% completion rate receiver Malachi Fields and Eli Raridon, who hauled in five catches for 97 yards, provide reliable targets.
The Irish running game, however, managed just 93 yards on 28 attempts (3.3 YPC) against Miami – a concerning figure given their need to control the clock against Texas A&M’s explosive offense. Jadarian Price led the way with 45 yards on six carries, but the ground attack will need significant improvement.
Defensively, Notre Dame held Miami to 324 total yards and forced them into a 5-of-14 third-down conversion rate. However, the Irish failed to generate any turnovers, which could prove costly against a Texas A&M offense that has been relatively mistake-free.
Historical Context and Trends
Notre Dame won last season’s matchup 23-13 in College Station, covering as 3-point road underdogs while the game stayed under the total. The Irish have the edge in this series historically, holding a 4-2 advantage over the Aggies.
Last season, Notre Dame was exceptional at home (7-2) and one of the nation’s best against the spread teams (10-2 ATS). Conversely, Texas A&M struggled on the road (2-3) and had difficulty covering spreads (3-9 ATS).
The Betting Analysis
The Side: Notre Dame -7
While the Irish looked shaky in their opener, several factors favor them covering the 7-point spread:
- Home field advantage in their opener – Notre Dame Stadium under the lights provides a significant boost
- Extra preparation time – The Irish had a bye week to address their Miami mistakes
- Defensive improvements expected – Notre Dame allowed easy scores to Miami that should be correctable
- Historical trends – The Irish were excellent at home and against the spread last season
Texas A&M’s defense has shown vulnerabilities, allowing 24 points to UTSA and 22 to Utah State. Against a Notre Dame offense that moved the ball effectively against Miami, the Aggies could struggle to keep pace if the Irish tighten up defensively.
The Total: Under 49.5
Despite Texas A&M’s explosive offense, several factors point toward the under:
- Notre Dame’s defensive potential – The Irish have the talent to slow down the Aggies if they execute better than they did against Miami
- Clock management – Notre Dame will likely try to control tempo and keep Reed off the field
- Historical precedent – Last year’s meeting went under, and Notre Dame games have historically been lower-scoring affairs in big spots
- Defensive adjustments – Both teams have had time to prepare, which typically favors defenses
The Bottom Line
Recommended Plays:
- Notre Dame -7: The Irish are the better team at home and should respond after their disappointing opener
- Under 49.5: Expect a more defensive battle than the numbers suggest
Notre Dame’s talent advantage, home field edge, and extra preparation time outweigh Texas A&M’s hot start. Look for the Irish to establish their running game early and use their crowd to create difficult third-down situations for Reed and the Aggies offense.
While Texas A&M has looked impressive in their first two games, they’ve yet to face a defense with Notre Dame’s capabilities. The Irish should find their footing at home and cover the touchdown spread in what projects as a 28-17 type of game that sneaks under the total.