Texas at Ohio State Betting Preview: Playoff Rematch – August 30, 2025

Game Details:

• Date: Saturday, August 30, 2025 (12:00 PM ET)
• Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
• TV: FOX
• Spread: Ohio State -3
• Total: 50.5 points

The Bottom Line Up Front

This season opener represents college football at its absolute pinnacle—two elite programs with championship pedigree, but both breaking in new quarterbacks after losing significant NFL talent. While Ohio State enjoys home-field advantage and defensive continuity, Arch Manning’s readiness and Texas’s superior offensive line situation make the Longhorns an attractive road underdog capable of pulling the upset.

The Championship Hangover Question

Ohio State comes off a dominant march to the 2025 CFP Championship, including a 28-14 semifinal victory over these same Longhorns. The Buckeyes’ title run was historic, but championship teams often face the challenge of replacing departed talent while maintaining that elite level.

Ohio State saw 14 players get selected in the 2025 NFL Draft, which was the most out of any team and tied the Buckeyes’ school record. Texas had 12 of its players picked, setting a new school record. Both programs lost significant production, but their recruiting prowess ensures continued excellence.

Ohio State: Reloading in the Shoe

The Quarterback Battle

Ohio State’s quarterback competition remains a “two-horse race” between Julian Sayin and Lincoln Kienholz, with coach Ryan Day admitting they’re “very similar” after spring evaluations. Sayin, the No. 1-ranked quarterback in the 2024 recruiting class, impressed in the spring game with 14-of-20 passing for 165 yards in the first half, while Kienholz had a perfect second half, completing all five passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns.

Sayin appears to be the slight favorite entering fall camp, but the competition remains genuinely open. Both quarterbacks lack significant game experience, creating uncertainty about how they’ll perform in a hostile environment against elite competition.

Brian Hartline’s Offensive Evolution

New offensive coordinator Brian Hartline brings a fresh perspective to the Buckeye attack. While losing 14 NFL-bound players creates challenges, Ohio State’s recruiting machine has restocked with elite talent.

Jeremiah Smith: The X-Factor

ESPN’s Heather Dinich believes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith will lead the Buckeyes to victory at home, calling him the best player in the game. Smith claimed Big Ten WR of the Year honors after shattering Ohio State freshman records for receptions (57), receiving yards (934), and receiving TDs (10). With Emeka Egbuka bound for the NFL, Smith will be the unquestioned No. 1 as a sophomore.

Defensive Concerns

While Ohio State’s defense contributed significantly to their championship run, replacing NFL-bound talent creates vulnerabilities that Texas could exploit.

Texas: The Manning Era Begins

Arch Manning’s Moment

Manning is the Heisman favorite at +650 odds despite only having two starts and 95 passes thrown in two seasons, where he mostly served as backup to Quinn Ewers. Manning showed his stuff in home starts against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State last September. In the 35-13 win over Mississippi State, he completed 26 of 31 passes for 325 yards and a pair of long-range touchdown strikes.

Manning laughed off the Heisman expectations at SEC Media Days, saying “I’m not really sure how they got these opinions because I’ve only played in, what? Two games? I guess it’s nice of them to say, but it doesn’t mean anything. Talk is cheap, I’ve got to go prove it.”

The pressure is immense, but Manning has spent two years learning under Quinn Ewers and absorbing Steve Sarkisian’s system. His arm talent is undeniable, and the stage couldn’t be bigger for his first marquee start.

Offensive Line Advantage

Texas completely rebuilt their offensive line but appears better positioned than Ohio State to protect their new quarterback. The Longhorns’ offensive line recruiting has been exceptional, and having just three returning offensive starters actually benefits them given the fresh start with Manning.

Defensive Superiority

Texas boasts perhaps the best defensive line and pass rushers in the nation. Against Ohio State’s inexperienced quarterback, the Longhorns’ pass rush could be the deciding factor. Texas’s defense should be top-notch and capable of creating the turnovers that Ohio State’s young signal-caller might provide.

Key Matchup Factors

Experience vs. Talent

Ohio State has the home-field advantage and championship experience, but Texas counter with superior quarterback readiness in Manning and a potentially dominant defensive front.

First Game Dynamics

With both teams expected to be very highly ranked and this a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff national semifinal, the matchup is one of the most anticipated openers in college football. Season openers can be volatile, especially with new quarterbacks, but both programs have elite talent ready to step up.

Historical Context

Paul Finebaum is convinced Texas will beat Ohio State, citing “The experience of (Arch Manning) being an understudy to Ewers and understanding Sark’s system is what’s going to get them over the top and probably — well, not probably — definitely beat Ohio State in the opener”.

Betting Analysis

The Spread: Ohio State -3

This line reflects the uncertainty surrounding both teams. Ohio State gets home-field advantage worth approximately 2.5-3 points, making this essentially a pick’em on neutral ground. The small spread suggests oddsmakers view these teams as virtually equal, despite the Buckeyes’ championship pedigree.

The Case for Texas +3:

• Manning appears more ready than either Ohio State quarterback
• Superior defensive line should pressure inexperienced Ohio State QB
• Revenge factor from the playoff loss
• Better offensive line situation
• Road dog mentality in a hostile environment

The Case for Ohio State -3:

• Home field advantage in the Shoe
• Championship experience and culture
• Jeremiah Smith as a game-breaking weapon
• Ryan Day’s track record with new quarterbacks
• Defensive continuity from title team

The Total: 50.5 Points

This relatively low total reflects both teams’ defensive capabilities and uncertainty about offensive production with new quarterbacks. However, both programs have explosive offensive potential.

Over Factors:

• Elite skill position talent on both sides
• Potential for big plays if quarterbacks settle in
• Two high-powered offensive systems
• Emotional, high-stakes atmosphere

Under Factors:

• New quarterbacks in pressure situation
• Strong defensive units on both sides
• Conservative game plans likely early
• Potential for turnovers and short fields

The Smart Play

Recommended Bet: Texas +3

This game represents everything that makes college football special—elite programs, championship implications, and young stars ready to announce themselves on the biggest stage. While Ohio State has home-field advantage and championship experience, Manning’s two-year apprenticeship under Ewers and in Sarkisian’s system gives him a significant edge over Ohio State’s inexperienced quarterbacks.

Texas’s defensive line should create consistent pressure, and their offensive line provides better protection for their new quarterback. The Longhorns are hungry for revenge after last year’s playoff defeat and possess the talent to win this game outright.

The small spread suggests a close game, but when two elite teams meet with this much uncertainty, take the points with the road team that has the more experienced quarterback and superior line play on both sides of the ball.

Final Prediction: Texas 27, Ohio State 24