Utah State at Texas A&M – Week 2 Betting Preview
Texas A&M welcomes Utah State to Kyle Field on Saturday, Sept. 6 at 11:45 a.m. ET. The Aggies’ home opener against UTSA showed some promise on offense but also exposed defensive issues in the run game. Utah State, meanwhile, opened the Bronco Mendenhall era with a solid win over UTEP. Oddsmakers (betonline – MyBookie) have installed Texas A&M as roughly a 30‑point favourite with a total of 54 points. For bettors looking to back the total, there is a compelling case for the over.
Why Texas A&M can score
Explosive passing attack. In his first start as the full‑time quarterback, Marcel Reed delivered a turnover‑free 42‑point outburst against UTSA. He completed 22‑of‑35 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns while adding yards on scrambles; Texas A&M did not commit a turnover and is now 5‑0 under Mike Elko when protecting the football. Transfer receiver KC Concepcion amassed 166 all‑purpose yards and became the first Aggie since Christian Kirk to record both a receiving and punt‑return touchdown in the same game. Fellow newcomer Mario Craver added 122 yards and two scores. With an experienced offensive line – three starters posted Pro Football Focus pass‑blocking grades above 76 – this passing game is built to attack Utah State’s secondary.
Returning weapons and depth. Senior tailback Le’Veon Moss averaged 6.3 yards per carry last season and returns behind an offensive line that cleared the way for the SEC’s second‑best rushing attack. Left tackle Trey Zuhn III and linebacker Taurean York were named season‑long captains, and Texas A&M brings back eight defensive starters with 140 combined starts. Safety Dalton Brooks – second on the team with 59 tackles and 5.5 tackles‑for‑loss last year – missed the UTSA game but will make his season debut. Coach Mike Elko calls him a “run‑and‑hit” safety and expects his return to help stabilise the defense.
Home‑field scoring trends. Since 2018 (Elko’s first season in College Station), the Aggies are 13‑1 in morning kickoffs at Kyle Field. They averaged 195.5 rushing yards per game in 2024 and were one of only three SEC teams to produce over 2,500 passing and 2,500 rushing yards. At home last year they surrendered just 15.1 points per game, but the UTSA matchup showed cracks in that trend.
Why Utah State can contribute to a high‑scoring game
Offense hasn’t slowed down. Utah State finished fourth in Mountain West scoring offense (31.9 ppg) and averaged nearly 200 rushing and 269 passing yards last season. Including last week’s 28‑16 win over UTEP, the Aggies have not scored fewer than 26 points in a game for nearly a year. New quarterback Bryson Barnes (a Utah transfer) threw for 233 yards and one touchdown against the Miners and has dual‑threat ability. Running back Miles Davis, a BYU transfer, led the team in rushing (88 yards) and receiving (61 yards) in the opener, and they still have a talented tight end and two transfer backs that Mike Elko praised earlier this week. Mendenhall’s teams historically play with “blue‑collar toughness” and are “physical and very disciplined,” according to Elko, and he knows the veteran coach from their ACC battles. Utah State also boasts a special‑teams unit that ranked fourth in punt average (42.5 yards) and sixth in kickoff average (60.1 yards) last season.
Texas A&M’s run‑defense issues. Last week’s win showed that A&M’s defense is still susceptible to chunk plays. UTSA’s Robert Henry Jr. rushed for 172 yards and two touchdowns and averaged 10.2 yards per carry; six of the Roadrunners’ 33 rushes accounted for 156 yards and two scores. The Aggies missed 13 tackles, 146 of UTSA’s 203 rushing yards came after contact, and linebacker Taurean York admitted the unit “misfit a lot of stuff”. Elko told reporters that only “four or five plays we give up are it,” but those lapses separate an elite defense from an average one. Utah State’s dual‑threat quarterback and transfer backs are capable of exploiting those same lapses. Even with Brooks back, A&M is still without several depth pieces on the line, and reserve back Tiger Riden and nickel Jordan Shaw are just returning from injuries.
Utah State defense is rebuilding. Last season the other Aggies finished last in the Mountain West in scoring defense (37.7 ppg) and gave up 214.5 rushing and 255.6 passing yards per game. Twenty‑four of the 38 players who entered the transfer portal were defenders, and head coach Bronco Mendenhall inherited a roster that needed wholesale replacements. Utah State added 27 transfers to rebuild the roster, but early in the season continuity may be lacking. A&M’s receiving corps should have a significant athletic advantage. Mendenhall’s team did sack Barnes six times in the opener, but they now face an offensive line that allowed only 23 sacks last season.
Betting angle & prediction
The total of 54 appears low considering these teams’ profiles. Texas A&M’s offense looked comfortable through the air and is bolstered by depth at the skill positions and a seasoned line. Utah State’s defense is coming off a season in which opponents averaged nearly 38 points, and the roster turnover suggests growing pains. The visitors rarely score fewer than the mid‑20s and bring a dual‑threat quarterback and transfer backs into a matchup against an A&M run defense that just surrendered 200+ rushing yards. Even if Texas A&M jumps ahead early, Mendenhall’s squad has the offensive tempo and special‑teams prowess to contribute to the total.
Prediction: Texas A&M rolls at home, but Utah State’s offense and A&M’s occasional defensive lapses push this game past the number. Expect something like Texas A&M 48, Utah State 17, which clears the over 54 comfortably.