Commodores Look to Shock the Gamecocks: Vanderbilt vs South Carolina Betting Preview

Saturday, September 13, 2025 | 7:45 PM ET | Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC

MyBookie has set South Carolina as a 5-point home favorite with a total of 48 points for this SEC showdown between two unbeaten teams. While the Gamecocks enter ranked #11 in the AP Poll, don’t sleep on a dangerous Vanderbilt squad that has already turned heads this season.

Game Overview

Both teams bring perfect 2-0 records into their SEC opener, setting up what could be a pivotal early conference matchup. The Commodores are riding high after a stunning 44-20 road victory over Virginia Tech, while South Carolina has handled their business at home with convincing wins over their early opponents.

Vanderbilt’s Impressive Start

The Commodores have been nothing short of spectacular through two games, averaging an eye-popping 44.5 points per game. In their last contest, the Commodores faced off with the Virginia Tech Hokies and took home the win by a score of 44-20. The Vanderbilt Commodores ended up rushing 37 different times and totaled 262 yds, earning them an average of 7.1 yds per carry. Overall, they had 57 plays which gave them a total of 490 yds.

Quarterback Diego Pavia has been the catalyst for this offensive explosion. Pavia has thrown for 468 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, while also contributing significantly with his legs. The dual-threat ability has made Vanderbilt’s offense nearly unstoppable early in the season.

The Commodores have racked up 971 total yards for the year. When it comes to getting in the endzone, Vanderbilt has earned 6 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing touchdowns. Even more impressive is their defensive efficiency – they are allowing an average of 2.8 yards per run and 81.0 yards on the ground per game this season, ranking them 6th in the country in total defense.

South Carolina’s Concerns

While the Gamecocks boast an 11th-place ranking, their offensive numbers raise some red flags. The South Carolina Gamecocks hold an average of 290.5 yards per contest, which ranks them 118th in the nation. This is particularly concerning for a team with playoff aspirations.

LaNorris Sellers has managed the offense efficiently but hasn’t been tested against elite competition. South Carolina rushed the football for 3.5 yards per carry, finishing the game with 125 yds on 36 attempts in their most recent outing, struggling to establish any ground game rhythm.

The Gamecocks’ defense has been solid, surrendering 10.5 points per contest, ranking them 26th in Division 1, but they haven’t faced an offense as explosive as what Vanderbilt brings to the table.

Historical Context and Revenge Factor

The historical series heavily favors South Carolina, with the Gamecocks winning the last meeting 28-7 in Nashville. However, Vanderbilt erased a ten-point halftime deficit to earn a 44-20 road triumph against Virginia Tech, showing their ability to respond when facing adversity on the road.

Looking at the last 10 meetings, South Carolina has dominated with an 8-2 record, but several of those games were closer than the final scores suggest. The Commodores will be motivated to prove that last year’s 28-7 loss was an aberration rather than the norm.

Betting Analysis

The Side: Take Vanderbilt +5

1. Offensive Firepower: Vanderbilt’s 44.5 PPG average against South Carolina’s 118th-ranked total offense suggests the Commodores have the superior unit.
2. Road Warrior Mentality: The Virginia Tech victory showed this Vanderbilt team can handle hostile environments and respond to adversity.
3. Value Play: South Carolina favored at -205 suggests the market may be overvaluing the home field advantage and ranking.
4. Defensive Edge: Vanderbilt has given up 17 pass completions on 29 attempts for a total of 134 yards, and a completion rate of 58.6%, indicating they can slow down South Carolina’s passing attack.

The Total: Over 48

The total presents excellent value for several reasons:

1. Offensive Explosion: With 89 points scored, they rank 13th in points for, demonstrating a solid start offensively for Vanderbilt, while both teams have shown they can move the ball.
2. Historical Trends: Vanderbilt’s games this season have hit the over in points scored in both instances.
3. Pace of Play: South Carolina ranks 121st in the FBS with an average time of possession of 25:30, compared to Vanderbilt’s 37th-ranked average of 32:10, suggesting more possessions and scoring opportunities.
4. Red Zone Efficiency: Both teams have strong red zone offenses, each scoring on 100% of trips to lead the FBS.

Final Prediction

Look for Vanderbilt to keep this game much closer than the betting public expects. The Commodores have the offensive firepower to match South Carolina score-for-score, and their defensive improvements make them a live underdog in this spot.

Best Bets:

• Vanderbilt +5
• Over 48 Total Points

The combination of Vanderbilt’s offensive explosion and South Carolina’s offensive struggles creates a perfect storm for a Commodores cover and a game that sails over the total. Don’t be surprised if this SEC opener turns into a statement win for a Vanderbilt program ready to announce its arrival on the national stage.