Virginia at NC State betting preview – Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025 (12 p.m. ET)

Virginia and NC State meet Saturday in a game that kicks off at 12 Noon EST. Both teams opened their seasons with wins: Virginia blasted Coastal Carolina 48‑7, while NC State survived East Carolina 24‑17. Oddsmakers list the Wolfpack as a three‑point favorite with a total around 53 points (MyBookie), yet most statistical models project a one‑score game. With the Cavaliers getting a field goal, there is a persuasive case to take the points.

Why the Cavaliers can keep it close

Tony Elliott’s team looked transformed in Week 1. The Cavaliers rolled up 454 yards against Coastal Carolina and posted the most points of the Elliott era. Oklahoma transfer Chandler Morris completed 19 of 27 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns before leaving with a hit to his non‑throwing shoulder. He also added 50 rushing yards. Virginia’s defense shut out the Chanticleers in the first half, limiting them to 254 total yards and just 91 rushing yards and scoring via a blocked punt. Although Virginia was picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC, the performance suggested that its 51 new players have raised the talent level.

As important, the Cavaliers have been bettors’ friends away from home. They are 7‑2‑1 against the spread (ATS) in their last ten road games, and they have already covered once this season. Several computer models also expect a tight game: the Dimers model projects a 26‑25 NC State win and gives Virginia a 47 % win probability, while the Punt and Rally projection makes NC State a two‑point favorite with a projected 28‑26 score and only a 56 % Wolfpack win chance. With our own model forecasting NC State 28, Virginia 27, the three‑point cushion offers value.

Question marks around the Wolfpack

NC State’s opener was less impressive. The Wolfpack jumped out to a 17‑0 lead against East Carolina but needed a late fourth‑down stop inside the 10‑yard line to seal a 24‑17 win. Red‑shirt freshman quarterback CJ Bailey threw for 318 yards and hit Wesley Grimes on a 48‑yard touchdown strike, but he also had a red‑zone interception and the offense settled for field‑goal tries that backup kicker Nick Koniecznski missed twice. Running back Daylan “Hollywood” Smothers gained 76 yards on 22 carries and scored, but the ground attack averaged barely 3.5 yards per carry. Even with a new defensive coordinator, the Pack allowed 366 passing yards and let ECU erase most of the 17‑point deficit. Dave Doeren acknowledged his team stalled in the red zone and committed too many penalties.

The Wolfpack’s recent ATS form is worrisome. They are just 4‑11 ATS in their last 15 games and a brutal 1‑9 ATS at home. Their secondary features largely new faces such as Jackson Vick, Devon Marshall and Brian Nelson. That unit gave up ten explosive plays to ECU, according to NC State blog Backing The Pack, and will be tested by Virginia’s quick‑strike passing game.

Match‑up breakdown and pick

Virginia’s offense has more firepower than it has shown in recent seasons. Chandler Morris has dynamic receivers, and the Cavaliers can mix in running backs. The key question is Morris’ health; the staff said he would be evaluated during the week. Whoever takes snaps will face a Wolfpack defensive front that held ECU to 30 rushing yards on 29 attempts. Yet Virginia’s quick‑passing attack should challenge NC State’s inexperienced secondary, and special teams might swing the game; UVA blocked a punt and returned a kickoff for touchdowns last week, while NC State missed two short field goals.

NC State still deserves to be favored at home. CJ Bailey’s arm and the receiving corps of Grimes and freshmen make the Wolfpack explosive, and the defense stiffened in goal‑to‑go situations. However, their inability to finish drives, shaky place‑kicking and poor ATS record leave little margin for error. Virginia’s offense looked rejuvenated and its defense created havoc in the opener. With models and betting trends suggesting this game will be decided by a field goal or less, taking the points is the prudent play.

The pick: Virginia +3

Expect a back‑and‑forth game in Raleigh. Getting a full three points with the hotter offense makes Virginia the best value. The Cavaliers could pull the upset if Morris is healthy and their special teams continues to produce big plays.