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Western Michigan vs. Michigan State College Football Preview: August 29, 2025
As the 2025 college football season kicks off, the Michigan State Spartans host the Western Michigan Broncos on Friday, August 29, at 7:00 PM EST in Spartan Stadium, East Lansing. With Michigan State favored by 17.5 points and the game total set at 49.5 (betonline).
Game Overview
Michigan State Spartans (2024: 5-7, 3-5 Big Ten)
Coming off a 2024 season that saw the Spartans finish 5-7 under head coach Jonathan Smith, Michigan State aims to set a strong tone in 2025. The Spartans return quarterback Aidan Chiles, who showed flashes of brilliance despite throwing nine interceptions last season. Chiles’ dual-threat ability (1,904 passing yards, 9 TDs; 374 rushing yards, 3 TDs in 2024) gives MSU a dynamic offensive leader.
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The Spartans’ defense, which ranked 29th nationally in total defense (323.1 yards per game), returns key pieces like linebacker Jordan Turner and should be stout against MAC competition.
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Michigan State has dominated this series historically, holding a 15-2 record over Western Michigan, including a 35-13 win in their last meeting on September 2, 2022. The Spartans have opened the season against WMU on the Friday of Labor Day weekend 11 times in the last 15 years, often using this game as a tune-up.
Western Michigan Broncos (2024: 6-7, 4-4 MAC)
Western Michigan, led by third-year head coach Lance Taylor, is coming off a 6-7 season that ended with a bowl game appearance. The Broncos’ offense hinges on running back Jalen Buckley, who rushed for 1,045 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024. However, WMU’s defense struggled against Power 5 opponents, allowing 28.0 points per game in losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State.
Betting Odds and Trends
- Spread: Michigan State -17.5 (-110) | Western Michigan +17.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan State -900 | Western Michigan +600
- Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
- Kickoff: August 29, 2025, 7:00 PM EST, Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, MI)
Betting Trends (2024 Season):
- Michigan State: 6-6 ATS (Against the Spread), 3-3 ATS at home. The Spartans were 2-1 ATS as double-digit favorites but failed to cover in their last meeting with WMU in 2022 (-21.5, won 35-13).
- Western Michigan: 8-5 ATS, 4-2 ATS on the road. The Broncos were 2-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs, covering against Wisconsin (+24) and Ohio State (+38.5).
- Over/Under: MSU games went 5-7 to the Over; WMU games went 6-7 to the Over. WMU’s games against Power 5 teams in 2024 averaged 47.0 total points.
Our Pick
Had this game been played at the end of last season, our model would have predicted a 34-16 Michigan State win. This year, Michigan State appears to be in much better shape than Western Michigan.
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The Spartans return 5 players on each side of the ball compared to Western Michigan who returns just 2 on offense and 3 on defense. When you add in the fact that Michigan State will simply always attract the better talent, it seems likely that the Spartans will surpass the model’s prediction using 2024 data.
The Spartans return 5 players on each side of the ball compared to Western Michigan who returns just 2 on offense and 3 on defense. When you add in the fact that Michigan State will simply always attract the better talent, it seems likely that the Spartans will surpass the model’s prediction using 2024 data.
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We’re always leary laying big numbers, especially early in the season when teams are working out the wrinkles. But we’re going to take Michigan State to win this one by 21+.
Michigan State -17.5
Lean – OVER 49.5
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