Indiana vs. Oregon CFP Semifinal Betting Preview | Peach Bowl Friday January 9, 2026
Game Info: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta | Friday, January 9, 2026 | 7:30 PM ET | ESPN
Odds at MyBookie: Indiana -3.5 | Total: 47
A Hoosier Team On A Mission
If ever there was a team on a mission, it’s these Indiana Hoosiers. A year ago, this program made history simply by earning a playoff berth—a tremendous accomplishment in its own right. But 2025-2026 is different. This Hoosier squad has steamrolled every opponent placed in front of them, including their jaw-dropping 38-3 demolition of Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
The Crimson Tide, once the gold standard of college football, were held to a paltry 193 total yards, including just 23 yards on the ground. Indiana’s defense forced Alabama into a dismal 3-of-11 third-down conversion rate while the offense piled up 407 yards. Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza was surgical, completing 14-of-16 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns. The Hoosiers have now won their last 11 games against Big Ten opponents, and they enter this semifinal with a spotless 14-0 record.
Oregon Has Been Equally Impressive
The Ducks were also playoff participants a year ago, getting bounced after receiving a first-round bye. This time around, they’ve made the most of their opportunities. Oregon took down James Madison 51-34 in their opening playoff game and followed that up with a dominant 23-0 shutout of Texas Tech in the quarterfinals—the program’s first bowl shutout since World War I.
The defensive performance against the Red Raiders was nothing short of suffocating. Oregon forced four turnovers, recorded four sacks and seven tackles for loss. Freshman cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. put on a show with two interceptions and a fumble recovery. The Ducks hold opponents to just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, the third-lowest mark in all of college football, and they rank eighth nationally in opponent dropback EPA.
The Rematch Factor
This game is a rematch of a regular season meeting in which Indiana beat Oregon at Autzen Stadium 30-20 back on October 11th. The old adage says it’s difficult to beat a team twice—but in this case, we’re not so sure that applies. Indiana won on the road in a hostile environment last time. This time, they face the Ducks on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. If anything, the setup favors the Hoosiers even more.
In that first meeting, Indiana’s defense held Oregon to just 267 total yards, 14 first downs, and a brutal 3-of-14 on third-down conversions. The Ducks failed to find the end zone offensively for the final 50:15 of that contest. Mendoza wasn’t perfect that day—completing 20-of-31 for 215 yards with a touchdown and an interception—but Indiana found ways to win despite not playing their best offensive game.
What Our Model Says
Just as with the other semifinal matchup, it’s a clean sweep across the board for our predictive model using three different timeframe parameters:
- Full Season Data: Indiana 21, Oregon 14
- Last 7 Games: Indiana 21, Oregon 11
- Last 4 Games: Indiana 20, Oregon 6
Both of these teams are fantastic in terms of yards per play and yards per rush attempt differentials, with each squad posting numbers north of +2.0. However, the Hoosiers hold a decisive edge in yards per point allowed with a mark of 24—best in the nation. Oregon counters with a very good but considerably less impressive figure of 17.6.
The Indiana Defense Will Be The Difference
Just as in their Rose Bowl triumph over Alabama, we believe it’s the Indiana defense that will be the difference here. This unit ranks second nationally by SP+ and has been among the most consistent groups in the country all season. Indiana has recorded the most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (four), and they posted the largest road win margin in the country this year with a 53-point win at Purdue.
Oregon’s offense struggled to find a rhythm against Texas Tech, going just 4-of-8 on fourth-down attempts while the run game was completely shut down. Against an Indiana defense that can get after the quarterback and take the ball away, Dante Moore and company will face their toughest test yet.
Betting Trends To Consider
- Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
- The UNDER is 7-1 in Oregon’s last eight games played on a Friday
- Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games
- Indiana is 4-0 ATS against ranked opponents this season
- Indiana hit the Under in three of their last four games
- The Under cashed in the first meeting between these teams
Our Pick
Look for the Hoosiers to punch their ticket to the championship game in decisive fashion. Indiana should cover the -3.5, and we’ll lean toward the Under 47 as well—though no official play on the total. Both defenses have been outstanding lately, and given the way Indiana shut down Oregon’s offense for the final 50 minutes of their first meeting, expect a similar script in Atlanta.
Pick: Indiana -3.5
Lean: Under 47