College Football Weekly Look Ahead Week 10
By: Jordan Adams
Another match-up of SEC powers goes down this Saturday in Neyland Stadium when the LSU Tigers visit one loss Tennessee. The Tigers come in at 6-2 and need to run the table and get help to have any shot at the SEC championship Game. At 2-2 in the Conference LSU trails first place Arkansas by two Games and Auburn by essentially two because of their head-to-head loss. On the other hand Tennessee needs a Florida loss and no more losses for them to win the East division.
Last year Tennessee came into Baton Rogue and stole a Game that seemed to be locked with an LSU victory. This was the first Game post-Katrina for the Tigers and they were overridden and denied that emotional win. Tennessee thinks they are the best one loss team in the country and its beatdown of Cal in the opener somewhat speaks on that level. LSU now has a great opportunity to exact revenge on Rocky Top.
No. 13 LSU vs. No. 8 Tennessee 11/4 3:30 pm (CBS)
Line: LSU -3
Simply put, LSU is undefeated at home but winless on the road. Losses to Auburn and Florida away from Baton Rogue have exposed the Tigers, but this week they have a chance for redemption. 7-1 Tennessee is 4-1 at home, its only loss coming to Florida back in September.
Both teams come in averaging over 32 points per Game. However the difference in the two defensively is LSUs stingy unit. The Tigers are giving up a meager 8 points per contest while the Vols are giving up over twice that.
As notable as Tennessee has been for its dominance at home, the Vols are 8-25 ATS in their last 33 in Neyland. Even worse, they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight November Games. Conversely the Tigers have proven they can cover on the road, posting a 12-5 mark against the number in their last 19 road Games.
These two storied programs have split the last Four meetings, with the winner scoring at least 26 points since 2000.
LSU is coming off two routings of Fresno State and Kentucky at home. Their last road Game was the first week of October, a 23-10 setback in the Swamp. Tennessee escaped South Carolina on the road with a 31-24 decision. Prior to that they took care of Alabama at home despite a lackluster performance by quarterback Erik Ainge.
The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points. They are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven Games as the road favorite.
The Vols are 0-4 ATS in their last Four Games against a team with a winning record.