NC State at Wake Forest: Thursday Night ACC Showdown Analysis
Game Details:
- Date: Thursday, September 11, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC
- TV: ESPN
- Spread: NC State -7 Betonline
- Total: 53.5
- Records: Both teams enter at 2-0
The Setup: Undefeated ACC Rivals Clash
Thursday night’s ACC showdown features two undefeated North Carolina programs, but their paths to 2-0 couldn’t be more different. NC State enters as 7-point road favorites after grinding out wins over East Carolina (24-17) and Virginia (35-31), showcasing resilience in tight contests. Wake Forest also sits at 2-0, but their resume includes a nail-biting 10-9 escape against Kennesaw State and a dominant 41-10 blowout of FCS Western Carolina.
Quarterback Efficiency Edge: Bailey vs. Ashford
The most significant disparity lies under center. NC State’s CJ Bailey has emerged as one of the early-season surprises, completing an impressive 70.4% of his passes for 518 yards with a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His dual-threat capability adds another dimension, having rushed for 65 yards and three scores through two games.
Wake Forest’s Robby Ashford brings a different profile – the Auburn and South Carolina transfer possesses the arm talent and mobility but carries volatility concerns. Through two games, he’s completed 66% of his passes for 445 yards with just one touchdown pass and one interception. The efficiency gap between these signal-callers could prove decisive in a conference opener.
Ground Game Dynamics
Both teams feature dynamic running backs who could swing this contest. NC State’s Hollywood Smothers has emerged as a workhorse, carrying 39 times for 216 yards and three touchdowns. His 140-yard, two-touchdown performance against Virginia demonstrated his ability to take over games.
For Wake Forest, Demond Claiborne remains one of the ACC’s premier backs. After managing the rib injury that slowed him in Week 1, Claiborne exploded for 193 yards and three scores against Western Carolina, including an 85-yard touchdown scamper. His ability to create explosive plays from nothing makes Wake dangerous, especially given NC State’s defensive struggles.
Defensive Concerns for Both Sides
Neither defense has inspired confidence through two weeks. NC State’s unit ranks 124th nationally, allowing 463.5 yards per game, with Virginia’s ground attack gashing them for 257 yards on an alarming 8.0 yards per carry. The Wolfpack’s inability to stop the run could play directly into Claiborne’s hands.
Wake Forest’s defense has faced lesser competition but showed vulnerability in their opener, nearly surrendering an upset to Kennesaw State. The true test comes against an NC State offense averaging 6.6 yards per play with multiple weapons.
Situational Factors Favor Wake
Several situational elements lean toward the home underdogs. This marks NC State’s first true road test of the season, coming on a short week after an emotionally draining comeback victory over Virginia. The Wolfpack face a tough schedule ahead with Duke next week, creating potential look-ahead concerns.
Conversely, Wake Forest enjoys the luxury of a bye week following this contest, allowing maximum preparation and energy investment. The Thursday night atmosphere in Winston-Salem has historically been challenging for visiting teams, with Wake posting an 8-2 straight-up record in their last 10 home games against NC State.
Red Zone Efficiency: The Deciding Factor
One critical statistical edge favors NC State significantly – red zone efficiency. The Wolfpack have converted their scoring opportunities at a high rate, while Wake Forest ranks 131st nationally, scoring touchdowns on just 40% of their red zone trips. In a game projected to be decided by a touchdown, the ability to finish drives with touchdowns rather than field goals becomes paramount.
Coaching Continuity vs. New System
NC State benefits from Dave Doeren’s 12-year tenure, providing institutional knowledge and proven game-planning ability. This continuity often manifests in early-season execution and situational football awareness.
Wake Forest counters with Jake Dickert’s fresh perspective in his first season. While the former Washington State coach brings innovation, the adjustment period to new systems on both sides of the ball creates inherent unpredictability.
The Betting Analysis
Side Recommendation: NC State -7
Despite the challenging road environment, NC State presents the superior value at the current number. The quarterback efficiency gap, combined with better red zone execution, provides sustainable advantages that should translate over four quarters. While Wake’s path to victory exists through Claiborne and home-field advantage, requiring them to finish drives consistently against an improving defense asks too much this early in the Dickert era.
NC State’s experience in close games and ability to make crucial late-game plays (as evidenced by their interception to seal the Virginia win) suggests they can handle the pressure of being road favorites in conference play.
Total Recommendation: Under 53.5
The under presents value based on several factors. Wake Forest has demonstrated conservative offensive tendencies under new management, particularly in their opener. NC State’s defense, while statistically poor, faced two high-octane offenses and showed improvement in situational moments.
Historical trends support this position, with the under cashing in three of the last four meetings in Winston-Salem. Both teams have shown the ability to tighten up defensively when needed, and the short week could favor conservative game-planning.
The projected score of NC State 28, Wake Forest 20 aligns with the under, expecting the Wolfpack to control the game without requiring a shootout to cover the spread.
Bottom Line
NC State’s superior quarterback play, red zone efficiency, and coaching continuity should overcome the challenges of playing on the road Thursday night. While Wake Forest possesses the talent to keep this competitive, particularly through Claiborne’s explosiveness, the Wolfpack’s more proven résumé and situational advantages make them the correct side at -7.
Final Picks:
- Side: NC State -7
- Total: Under 53.5