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KENTUCKY DERBY HORSES TO AVOID
2009
Every Kentucky Derby is full of many horses and countless possibilities. Just like any other wagering event, in order to increase your chances of winning you have to narrow down your choices. Due to the large amount of horses in the race, there are several posers who don�t belong in the race. They have little to no chance of winning. There are also those horses that do in fact belong in the race but have peaked long ago. Let�s take a look at some horses you might want to avoid.
Square Eddie– This horse is pretty controversial for handicappers. He was a Grade I winner at two, but hasn�t done much at three due to injuries. His last race resulted in a third place finish in the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes. He made a big move after breaking poorly, but ultimately wasn�t fit enough to find the winners circle. Detractors will argue his low BSF�s mean he isn�t nearly good enough to win this race. The Ontario bred colt will have to race after having just two weeks rest. I would have liked to see him win the Lexington because the field was so poor. He is going to have a hard time winning the Kentucky Derby.
Summer Bird– This colt managed a hard charging third place finish in the Arkansas Derby in what was his third career start. He looks like a great dark horse candidate at first, but don�t let that 99 BSF fool you. He has been working poorly at Churchill Downs and lacks heavily in experience. The son of Birdstone will have to close through heavy traffic and hasn�t proved he is capable of doing that. He is likely to regress instead of move forward after that career best race. I would be extremely shocked if he were able to pull off the win.
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Win Willy– This son of Monarchos pulled off a huge shocker when he beat the previously undefeated Old Fashioned in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at the monstrous price of 57-1. I believe that win was probably a fluke and he isn�t capable of reproducing a run like that in the near future. He followed that performance up with a dull Fourth place run in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. I would be mildly surprised if he was able to run third or Fourth, but a win is certainly out of the question.
Pioneerof The Nile– You might be surprised to see this Bob Baffert trainee on my list. I don�t like him much at all despite the fact that ace jockey Garrett Gomez chose him over Dunkirk. His win in the Santa Anita Derby came against inferior competition and was less than breath taking. His career best BSF of 96 came in his last race, and I hate the fact that he hasn�t been able to crack a 100. He has never raced on dirt and that is a complete and total wild card. What if he can�t reproduce his synthetic form at Churchill Downs? There are just too many question marks for a horse who is likely to be 6-1 or 7-1.
Advice– I�m not sure if this colt who won the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes last out is derby bound or not, but if he shows up you should stay away. He ran well last out, but was beating up on scrubs. I doubt he will ever win a major race again. He was lucky to win the Lexington and was racing on a surface that favored his running style. I don�t like him one bit.
I�ve narrowed your choices down significantly by 25%. Make sure to tune in on the first Saturday in May to watch the Kentucky Derby, and check back to Bettorsworld.com for the latest information!
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