Prospective
Kentucky Derby
Contender Profile
5/5/12
(Starts: 8 Win: 4 Place: 2 Show: 0 Earnings: $443,192)
Trainer: Mark Casse (15.2%)
Jockey: LUis Contreras (16.9%)
THE CONNECTIONS: These days Mark Casse tends bar in Canada where the purses are huge at Woodbine. He also has a contingent in the United States and has been the leading trainer at Churchill Downs. The second biggest race at Churchill Downs is the Stephen Foster Handicap, a race Casse won last year with Pool Play at big odds. Jockey LUis Contreras is a young Mexican rider that is quickly making a name for himself. Some of his top mounts include the filly Bay to Bay and Fifty Proof.
THE HORSE: Precocious as a juvenile, Prospective won the Grade 3 Summer Stakes over Woodbine’s Poly Track surface. He failed to fire in the Breeders’ Cup, but returned to post a good effort in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay. After, that he won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby over a Game Golden Ticket. His last prep for the Derby was the Blue Grass Stakes, a race where he failed to fire.
THE PEDIGREE: Prospective’s sire, Malibu Moon, is a rags to riches story. He started his career as a $3k stud in Maryland and now stands for $70k in Kentucky. He raced just twice before retiring due to injury. His best progeny include Beldame Stakes winner Life At Ten, Mother Goose Stakes winner Devil My Care and Hollywood Futurity winner Declan’s Moon. He can produce horses that go the Derby distance, but most of his best progeny tend to be female. His dam, Spirited Away, was a stakes winner going 8 ½ furlongs. Her sire, Awesome again, was a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner that threw such great horses as Horse of the Year Ghostzapper. There is more than enough pedigree for Prospective to go the ten furlongs distance of the Derby.
CONCLUSION: This horse finished dead last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and has shown little to make us think he can rebound against many of those same horses. His Tampa Bay Derby win was good, but not great. It’s going to take something strange for him to win.
PEDIGREE GRADE: B-
OVERALL GRADE: D
FAIR ODDS: 50-1