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AMERICAN IDOL FINAL FIVE AND SIX – PREDICTIONS
5/2/07
This is a follow up article to last weeks. Last week, no one was eliminated so two contestants will be eliminated this week. One theory as to why no one was eliminated last week is that American Idol phone lines could not handle the volume of calls last week, due to the show raising money for charity. If that theory is valid, then this weeks eliminations will be based solely on last nights performances.
Either way, when you analyze all the various trends, and polls, including dial idol, it seems fairly certain that the bottom three this week will be :
Lakisha Jones
Phil Stacey
Chris Richardson
Lakisha Jones would seem to be the most likely of the three to get the boot. For those that prefer a female winner, the other two female contestants are more than likely getting all of those votes.
Phil Stacey would probably be the other one to get the boot this week, based on reasons already covered in last weeks article below.
since sportsbooks are offering odds on which “pair” will be eliminated, there may be some value in betting Lakisha + Phil and then Lakisha + Chris. However as of this writing, the odds are not up as they were taken down before last nights show.
If we get a chance, we’ll be back on this page later in the day with an analysis of the odds.
UPDATE – NOTE that the price on Lakisha and Chris to get the boot is -525. No value there of course.
Chris and Phil +380
Phil and Lakisha +365
It’s not likely that 2 guys get the boot, so the best value would be with Phil and Lakisha at +365
4/25/07
So who will get the boot tonight on American Idol?
Jordon Sparks – This 17 year old was among the top performers last night. Can’t imagine she’d be going any place this week.
Melinda Doolittle – Surprisingly, Dial Idol has her 2nd to last this week. It’s possible she could get a wake up call and a taste of what’s it’s like to sweat out a results show. But at the end of the day, she’s not going anywhere this week.
Blake Lewis – This kid is very talented, and current, when he mixes his beat boxing with his performance. He hasn’t had the chance to do that the last few weeks which could hurt his chance. But ultimately, he deserves to stay a little longer.
That leaves us to the three most likely to be in the bottom 3 this week.
Phil Stacey
Lakisha Jones
Chris Richardson
I’d probably lean towards Phil Stacey as the most likely to be eliminated this week. He’s been in the bottom three a gazillion times already, going back several weeks. With that kind of pattern, it’s easy to see he simply doesn’t have the support needed. Of all the remaining contestants, he has appeared in the bottom three more than anyone else. However, Votefortheworst.com has now given their support to Stacey. How much iNFLuence to they have? It’s hard to say. The site has gotten quite a bit of media attention lately. The founder even made a Letterman appearance last week. They were behind Sanjaya until he got the boot. But I think Howard Stern had more to do with the Sanjaya vote than Votefortheworst. Although Votefortheworst did manage to keep Antonella Barba on much longer than she should have.
Chris Richardson has made a couple of bottom three appearances, and doesn’t figure to last much longer. The question of course, is, will this be the week? Just trying to handicap the voting audience, I’d have to guess that he’s more likely to gain the support of some of the teeny boppers previously voting for Sanjaya. He’s current, not a terrible singer, and has that Justin Timberlake thing going. Not enough to win, but maybe enough to squeak by another week.
Lakisha would appear to be on the hot seat. Her support has bottomed out. She was once pegged as a lock to win it all, but has gone downhill each of the last several weeks. The judges haven’t liked her. Her attitude in general has been lousy as she can’t handle constructive criticism. (That pisses voters off). Her style of singing seems the least likely to garner any additional support.
Also pay attention to the judges comments. They are the mouthpieces for the producers of the show. They know exactly who they want to be in the finals. It’s all about ratings and they know what sells. Based on their recent comments, they don’t want Lakisha anywhere near the finals.
Tough to suggest any wagers as this is being written prior to any odds being posted this week. However, check back later in the day and we’ll be back on this page to tell you if there is any value to be had.
Our pick to get the boot – Lakisha
***NOTE – With the odds now posted, Lakisha is -140. The odds on favorite to get the boot. NO VALUE with this wager.
Next up is Chris Richardson at -125. again, NO VALUE.
Phil Stacey however, is +500. As mentioned above, the support of votefortheworst would have me a little hesitant on backing him. But he does fit the pattern of having the most appearances in the bottom 3 of all the remaining contestants. At +500, he may be worth a little shot.