MLB PLAYOFF PICKS
Join us here throughout the MLB playoffs right thru to the final Game of the World Series as Our Key Release crew tackles the Baseball playoffs. Lots of great match ups which should present some nice wagering opportunities. Let’s play ball!
Our Baseball Key Releases will be rated 1/2 Unit, 1 Unit, 1.5 Units and 2 Units.
RECORD : 10-2 +836
Well, the Rockies have been good to us. So, we owe them a shot here. If they are going to get back into this, or at the very least, win a Game, this one looks like their best shot. They’ll get a crack at Masuzak who is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 6 starts. It’s now or never. If the Rockies get this one, then we’ll talk about finding some more plays. Otherwise, this may be the last World Series play. We shall see.
1 Unit Rockies +135 Fogg over Matsuzak
Apologies to all those looking for action every day. That’s not how you go about being a long term winner. You don’t play, just for the sake of playing. Get where we’re going with this? Right. We have to pass again. This World Series is simply a case of one team being better than the other, AND being on a roll. Add in the playoff experience, both on the mound and elsewhere, and there’s only one way to look. But, the price is too high to play the Bosox, so, we pass.
There may be an opportunity to make a play when the series moves to Colorado Saturday Night. Check back then.
World Series – Rockies vs Bosox
Unfortunately for the Rockies, they have had to sit around for over a week while they waited for the Bosox to take care of the Indians. One would think that would hurt their momentum going into the World Series against a Bosox team still sky high from their series with the Indians.
When you break down the line ups and the pitchers, player for player here, the Bosox are the better team. They performed better all year against much stiffer American League opponents then the Rockies over in the NL. It would take a momentum run, or winning streak like the Rockies have been on, to be successful here but again, the 8 day layoff simply has to hurt.
I just don’t see much value as far as the series goes. However, we’ll take a look at each Game as it comes and see if we can’t find some plays, either sides or totals to take advantage of.
For Game 1, we’ll sit back and see what each team brings to the table. So no play tonight for Game 1.
10/21 1/2 Unit Bosox/Indians Under 10 -105
Well, all good things must come to an end. We dropped out last play bringing the MLB playoff record to 10-1. We have to pass tonights Game. Just don’t like it. Two pitchers looking to bounce back and have better performances but Schilling appears to have the slight edge and the line reflects that at -127 or so.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see where we are going for win number 11. All the momentum is on the side of the Indians here as they have the Bosox on the ropes. Can’t see Sabathia having back to back bad Games. Let’s get this over with and get the big show started (world series)
Indians +100 Sabathia over Bosox Beckett – 1 Unit
How bout those Rockies? Their series win brings us to 9-0 on the post season. Hey, we’ll take it!
The layoff now, while they sit around and wait for the winner of the Indians/Bosox will hurt their momentum unfortunately. But their run is a perfect example of taking advantage of baseballs streaks. When you’re hot you’re hot.
For tonight, we’re playing the Indians Byrd over the Bosox Wakefield +105 1 Unit – The Bosox go to veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield tonight. Wakefield wasn’t on the roster for the last series and is making his first start since Sept 29th. He was left off the roster due to a back injury. The Red Sox say he is ok. We shall see. But the back injury combined with the fact that knuckleballers are hit or miss make this a play. They can be very good, or very bad. Generally not in between. If there’s any wind at the Jake, look out! Wakefield is 5-1 in 8 LCS starts, which is a plus. But the injury, the layoff, and the fact that the Indians have the Sox on the ropes make this a nice play on the Indians. With the knuckle ball being hit or miss, we are hoping tonight is a miss. We’re also going to play the over 10 -105 for a 1/2 Unit
Indians worth a small shot tonight at the dog price. – Indians (westbrook) +112 over Bosox (matsuzak) 1/2 Unit WIN
Not going to get in the Rockies way. We still have them for the series. Price to high to play them here.
No play tonight on the Bosox/Indians series or Game 1. While it’s certainly tempting to play the big dog with the Indians, the same type of value we found with them against the Yanks isn’t there. At least not in Game one. We are going to pass tonight
We are also passing Game two of the Rockies/D-Backs. Certainly the Rockies are worth a look as the hottest team in baseball. However betting bases is about more than just trying to pick a winner. It’s about the prices and getting great value. The value is slowly starting to disappear with the Rockies as they continue to win. We’ll pass tonight. We still have Our series bet alive of course.
10/11 – Two plays for today :
1 UNIT Rockies -129 to win the Series PENDING WIN
Game 1 – 1 UNIT Rockies +120 Francis over Webb WIN
Much has been made about Arizona Ace Webb. But the Rockies have had success against Webb this year. He beat them the last time out which also happened to be the Rockies only loss in the last 18 Games. But he was 0-3 against the Rockies in 5 starts this season with an ERA of 6.47!! Hardly intimidating. So you have a Rockies line up that knows they can hit Webb, a Rockies team who won the season series 10-8, and a Rockies team that has won 17 of their last 18 Games. The price is reasonable for the series at -129, and Game one at a dog price of +120 is a no brainer as well. Plenty of value there.
10/8 – Yanks may have made a statement last night, with Torre’s job on the line and all, but can they keep it going for another night? They certainly have the pitcher they want to go against tonight. Byrd was 1-3 down the stretch with a 6.83 ERA and was pounded for 11 hits in his final regular season start. For the Yanks, Wang was pounded by the Indians in Game one so you’d expect a much better performance at home tonight where he was 10-4 with a 2.75 ERA and where his 21 wins over two years is best in the Major Leagues. But again, the Yanks couldn’t ask for more than to have Byrd on the mound. He’s the type of pitcher Yankee batters tend to eventually get to. Torre will also have a short leash on Wang with all hands on deck to save the season. We’ll pass tonights Game as the price is too high to play the Yankees and we don’t trust Byrd enough to take a shot with the Indians.
10/6 – Passing today
1/2 Unit Indians (Carmona) +113 over Yankees (Pettitte) – Much has been made about Pettittes start tonight. Mostly referring to the edge he’ll have as a veteran with tons of HUGE playoff and World Series starts under his belt. Truth is, he’s a modest 15-9 on the year with a 4.08 ERA and he’s 0-2 in two playoff starts at Jacobs Field with an ERA of 7.94……hardly dominating. The Indians we’re just as hot as the Yankees the 2nd half of the year and right now they have the hot bats and the momentum with a chance to grab a 2-0 lead in the series. Indians +113 WIN
1 Unit Rockies (Morales) +143 over Phillies (Kendrick) – The write up really won’t change for this Game. You can just scroll down and read yesterdays. We’ve got two hot rookie pitchers going up against each other. But the pressure lies on the Phillies rookie with his team already down a Game. Both pitchers have performed very well as of late, but we’re going to ride the hottest team in baseball at a nice price one more time. Rockies +143 1 Unit WIN
1/2 Unit D-Backs (Davis) +123 over Cubs (Lilly) – DBacks pitcher Doug Davis was 5-0 with a 3.13 era after the All Star break. You’re getting the team with the momentum in the series at a dog price. You’re going to win 50% or so of these types of Games and at +123 that makes us money. D-Backs +123 WIN
1/2 Unit Indians (Sabathia) +104 over Yankees (Wang) – Very winnable Game for the Indians. If they are to put themselves in a position to take this series, they’ll need to win when Sabathia pitches. The Yankees swept the season series with the Indians but they didn’t face Sabathia. Sabathia is the wild card in this series and we’re going to use him in this spot. WIN
Be back later this afternoon for additional plays
1 Unit Rockies (Francis) +137 over Phillies (Hamels) – Both teams hot down the stretch. But no team hotter than the Rockies who won 14 of their last 15 to make it here. Not to mention they have already played a play off Game that was do or die. This series will be all about offense. Neither team figures to be out of any Game at any given time which is the perfect scenario to cash nice underdog prices. Let’s look at this another way. At +137, we have to win Our wager about 42% of the time to break even. We like Our chances to win more than 42% of the time with a team that has won 14 of 15 Games. Rockies +137 1 Unit WIN!
1 Unit D-Backs (Webb) -130 over Cubs (Zambrano) – Willing to make a play here at a chalk price on Cy Young winner Webb. The opener in this series is all about the pitchers. Webb is 4-1 against the Cubs, 3-0 against them at home with an ERA of 1.76. He’s 5-1 down the stretch at home in his last 7 Games with an ERA of 2.42. Overall Webb was 10-2 down the stretch with an ERA of 2.43. Zambrano was good on the road this year, at 12-4 with a 3.06 but Webb gets the nod in this one at a reasonable price. D-Backs -130 1 Unit WIN!
Angels at Bosox – No play here. The Angels are 1-10 against the Bosox when Lackey starts. Lackey’s record in those Games is 1-6 with a 6.27 ERA. 0-2 with an 8.38 this year. That’s pretty dismal. This one goes to the Sox but not willing to lay the big price. So we’ll pass.