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Texas Rangers Undervalued by Oddsmakers
7/1/08
I mentioned this the other day but it’s worth mentioning again. We’re seeing a return to mediocrity across the majors by some of the teams tagged as big time contenders just a couple of weeks ago. It’s important to take a glance at the Major League Baseball standings, specifically, the winning percentages, as an illustration as to why you shouldn’t bet favorites higher than -130 or so and why you should concentrate on underdogs. You have a handful of teams around 60% or close to it. The Rays and Bosox in the AL East. The Angels and then one NL team, the Cubs.
The mighty Yankees are 5 Games over .500 at 53%. The Red Hot Tigers are at 51%. One of the NL’s best offensive teams to date, the Phillies, are dropping quickly and sit at 53%. Mater of fact, the entire NL East is up from grabs in a sea of mediocrity with the Phillies, Mets, Marlins and Braves all between 40 and 44 wins on the year.
How about the NL West? Not one team is above 50%. The Division leading D-Backs are one Game over .500 at 42-41 for 50.6%. I bring this up to get you to broaden your outlook when you look at a days MLB card and try to ferret out a few plays. Dig a little deeper into the days Games and look for other handicapping factors such as how a team does against Righties or Lefties. How a team does in day Games vs night Games and how a team does home and away.
For example, the Texas Rangers are a .500 baseball team this year, but one of the biggest money makers from a betting standpoint in many categories. If you bet on the Rangers strictly when they face a right handed pitcher for example, you’d be up 16 units this year. Likewise, if you bet the Rangers in all their road Games, this mediocre team with a road record of 22-23 put close to 7 units profit in your pocket. For that matter, if you just bet blindly on the Rangers in EVERY Game this year you’d be up 10 units. They are only 2 Games over .500, but the Rangers have been undervalued by the oddsmakers all year long. Remember that before you lay -200 tonight with Chamberlin and the Yankees.
Todays Free Play comes courtesy of Bob Harvey Sports.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros (MLB) – Jul 1, 2008 8:05 PM EDT Play: Total: 9/-130 Under Play Title: Tuesday MLB Dodgers vs. Astros Lance Berkman hit his 22nd home run to back six innings of one-run ball from Roy Oswalt as the Astros downed the Dodgers 4-1 in the first-of-Four at Minute Maid Park. Oswalt stuck out nine and didn’t walk a batter en route to his seventh win of the season. Jose Valverde pitched the ninth for his 22nd save. Mark Lorett had an RBI single and Brad AuSMUs singled in two for Houston, which has won three in a row. Eric Stults gave up all Four runs in five-and-a-third frames to suffer his first loss in three decisions. James Loney’s sac-fly in the first inning was all the offense for Los Angeles. The Dodgers have lost their last two Games.
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