DAILY BASEBALL PICKS
Today we take a look at some Major League baseball Games worthy of a closer look for wagering purposes. Remember, when betting on baseball, there is seldom, if ever, a Game worth laying more than -130 on. Being successful betting on baseball over the long run requires a mix of underdogs and short priced favorites. The majority of all Major League teams hover around .500. A few Games above or below. A few exceptions may win 58% of their Games or so, but rarely higher. You could hit 58% winners playing -140 favorites every day but guess what, you’d break dead even. Unlike football and hoops where 58% winners would be considered very good. We’ll include a break even chart for baseball at the bottom of this page.
Saturday June 14th
Phillies at Cardinals +105 – Perhaps the Game of the day in Major League baseball today. The two best teams in the National league square off on St Louis at 3:55 pm est. Both teams playing well at home and on the road winning at a 59% clip overall. But the Cards have the favorable pitching match up here with Lohse on the mound with his 7-2 record and 3.92 ERA. The Cards are also looking to snap a 2 Game slide to keep from losing 3 in a row for the first time since mid may. At +105 we have a favorable situation with the Cards today.
Bosox +130 at Reds – Anytime you have a team winning 60% of their Games and you’re getting them at an underdog price of +130 or better, you have to take a close look. Of course, there’s a reason for the price. The Bosox success comes at Fenway, where they are a spectacular 28-7 on the year while just 14-21 on the road. They are also going up against the hottest pitcher in baseball in Edinson Volquez. The Bosox throw Wakefield today who has only given up 2 runs or less in his last 3 starts. While pitching is so important in baseball, you still have to consider the offense and the teams as a whole. The Reds are a below .500 team and really are not deserving of being a -140 favorite against the Bosox even with Volquez. The Bosox are worth a look today.
Pirates +119 at Orioles – Here we have two .500 teams going at it with the O’s throwing a pitcher recently called up from the minors, Radhames Liz. Liz was bombed in 4 starts last year going 0-2 with an ERA of 11.48. This is a matchup up today, that, if played 1000 times, we’re likely to get a 50/50 result. Making a +119 dog profitable in the long run. So, the Pirates are definitely worth a closer look today.
Twins +140 at Brewers – Twins will be playing with some confidence today after unloading on the Brewers last night 10-2. again we have a couple of .500 teams going at it with one team a prohibitive favorite at an unrealistic price. Sure, the Brewers should be favored, but if they played this Game 1000 times, would the Brewers win 600 to the Twins 400? I doubt it. The price is wrong. We may win or lose the Game today, but over the long haul, we’ll come out ahead backing the Twins here at +140. Both pitchers going in this one are .500 on the year.
Check the Bettorsworld home page daily during baseball season for a look at the days Games worth a closer look. Below is a break even chart for baseball betting, or money line betting in general.
Moneyline Loss Win Win %
required -320 -320 100 76.19% -300 -300 100 75.00% -280 -280 100 73.68% -270 -270 100 72.97% -260 -260 100 72.22% -250 -250 100 71.43% -240 -240 100 70.59% -230 -230 100 69.70% -220 -220 100 68.75% -210 -210 100 67.74% -200 -200 100 66.67% -180 -180 100 64.29% -170 -170 100 62.96% -160 -160 100 61.54% -150 -150 100 60.00% -140 -140 100 58.33% -130 -130 100 56.52% -120 -120 100 54.55% -110 -110 100 52.38% -105 -105 100 51.22% -100 -100 100 50.00% 105 -100 105 48.78% 110 -100 110 47.62% 120 -100 120 45.45% 130 -100 130 43.48% 140 -100 140 41.67% 150 -100 140 41.67% 160 -100 160 38.46% 170 -100 170 37.04% 180 -100 180 35.71% 200 -100 200 33.33% 210 -100 210 32.26% 220 -100 220 31.25% 230 -100 230 30.30% 240 -100 240 29.41% 250 -100 250 28.57% 260 -100 260 27.78% 270 -100 270 27.03% 280 -100 280 26.32% 290 -100 290 25.64% 300 -100 300 25.00%