Sabathia Makes 1st Start for Brewers – 7/8/08

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There’s a few interesting series this week as we’re just about at the all star break. We have the Cardinals and Phillies, two of the National Leagues contenders squaring off in Philly. We have CC Sabathia making his debut for the Brewers. The Bosox and Twins continue their set and the Rays visit the Yanks for two in the Bronx.

The Cardinals find themselves as high as +193 underdogs in Philly tonight, which is just plain ridiculous. Certainly the pitching matchup favors the Phillies and yeah, they have a higher probability of winning tonight than the Cards do. But not at odds as high as -210. You almost have to make an automatic play on the Cardinals here on principle alone. The Phillies are just 2 Games over .500 at home and they have lost 3 straight and 8 of their last 9 at home. The Cards are one of the few teams in all of baseball that has a winning record on the road. You’re just about guaranteed to win this wager over the long run. A wager on a +193 dog under these exact conditions will show you a profit long term, whereas, a play on a 210 favorite under these circumstances will send you looking for a loan eventually.

Briefly, on CC Sabathia, wouldn’t it be funny if he was bombed tonight after this big trade that’s supposed to cement the Brewers post season chances? His ERA in 4 Games against the Rockies is 9.82. The Rockies have won 6 of their last 7. Hmmm.

JULY 8, 7:05 PM CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT

  • Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 Games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 7 Games
  • Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 Games when playing at home against Cleveland
  • Detroit is 3-8 SU in its last 11 Games when playing Cleveland

JULY 8, 7:05 PM HOUSTON vs. PITTSBURGH

  • Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 Games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston’s last 17 Games
  • Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 Games when playing at home against Houston
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh’s last 11 Games when playing at home against Houston

JULY 8, 7:05 PM MINNESOTA vs. BOSTON

  • Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 Games when playing on the road against Boston
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 Games when playing on the road against Boston
  • Boston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 Games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston’s last 15 Games

JULY 8, 7:05 PM ST. LOUIS vs. PHILADELPHIA

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis’s last 6 Games on the road
  • St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 Games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
  • Philadelphia is 1-8 SU in its last 9 Games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 7 Games at home