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World Series Betting Predictions and Analysis
Phillies vs. Yankees
10/27/09
So, how does it feel to be a Cleveland Indians fan right about now? Watching half of your former rotation pitching against each other in the World Series, each player an Ace in his new teams rotation. Has to be painful! OUch.
But on to bigger and better things. The Phillies and the Yankees will square off in the world series and oddsmakers have made the Yankees a more than 2-1 favorite to win it all. In Game one, CC Sabathia will face Cliff Lee with Sabathia and the Yanks a favorite of -165. For those of you not familiar with baseball betting, that means you lay $165 to win $100.
Long time readers of Bettorsworld know we preach value. Professional baseball bettors will tell you that there are no good baseball wagers laying more than -130 on a Game. Put another way, if the price on a baseball Game is higher than -130, you either look for reasons to bet the dog, or you pass the Game completely.
This series is by no means a mismatch. You don’t make it to the World Series by luck. In just about any World Series matchup, either team is capable of knocking off the other. Both teams are always the hottest two teams in baseball when they make it to the fall classic and baseball is a Game of streaks. All it takes is 4 more wins.
Both of these teams have similar characteristics. They have their sluggers, they have similar starting pitching and the Phillies are perhaps the only team in baseball with a closer even close to the level of Mariano Rivera. Also, it’s the Phillies who are defending Champs, so this is a fitting matchup in many ways.
There are plenty of question marks for both teams. Pedro Martinez spent most of the 2009 season fishing on his yacht before the Phillies came calling in late July. Will he implode on the mound in Game 2? Will CC Sabathia continue his current post season form, or will he have a flashback to his Indians days when he went 0-2 against the Redsox with an era of over 10 in the ALCS?
Perhaps the key to the entire series is, can the Phillies rely on Brad Lidge? Will he continue his post season dominance or will he revert to his regular season form where he had a 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves? Rivera, by the way, had a 1.76 with 2 blown saves. Hmmmm. Lidge could be in some trouble against this Yankees lineup.
From a betting standpoint, we’d advise taking a hard look at the underdog in any Game where the price is over +150 or so. In any Game where the price on the Game is -130 or lower, handicap the Game as you would any baseball Game. Pick your spots. You don’t have to bet every Game, or any Game for that matter.
While we can’t advise laying over 2-1 on any wager, from a purely predictive standpoint, we like the Yankees in 6 Games. Even if you made the pitching matchups even here, the Yankee line up from top to bottom is better than the Phillies and the Rivera vs. Lidge matchup goes to Rivera.
It’s also worth noting that as with the Super Bowl, you’re not limited to betting just on the Game outcomes. There will be tons of prop bets to choose from. Wagers such as picking a team in the exact number of Games. Or, the largest margin of victory in any Game will be over or under 4.5 runs? Or how about total home runs by AROD and Jeter over/under 4.5?
5dimes.com currently has a long list of props available. Visit their site to have a look!
Good luck if you wager, and most importantly, Enjoy the World Series. It should be a good one!
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