Milwaukee Bucks (56–30 40-46 ATS) at Atlanta Hawks (50-37 47-38-1 ATS)
Since losing Game 1 of this series the Bucks have beaten the Hawks handily in the last two games to take a 2-1 series lead. This Eastern Conference finals game can be seen on TNT.
Even on the road the Bucks are a pretty big betting favorite posted at -6 with a total of 221.5.
Not only did the Hawks give back home court advantage to the Bucks in the 113-102 Game 3 loss but star Trae young was injured and while he finished the game, he is getting an MRI Monday, but should play in Game 3.
After giving up 116 points in the Game loss the Bucks have only given up 91 points and 102 points, respectively, in winning the last two games of this series. Kris Middleton went off for 38 points in Game 3 and early in the fourth quarter Atlanta had a five-point lead but were outscored 25-9 the rest of the way.
While Milwaukee is only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite they covered in Atlanta in the Game 3 win as a 5-point favorite.
Middleton Steps Up
After only scoring 15 points in the first two games of this series Kris Middleton stepped up in the Game 3 win going for 38 points on 15/26 shooting and he also was 6/12 from 3-pt land, grabbed 11 rebounds, and had seven assists.
In the Game 3 win Milwaukee shot 51.1% from the floor, Atlanta shot 46.4%, and Giannis Antetokounmpo had 33 points and 11 rebounds and Robin Lopez and reserve Bobby Portis combined for 25 points.
The Greek Freak has played well in the series but the supporting cast is the main reason they have won the last two games. He will get his points and boards but the team will be tough to beat if Middleton and Jrue Holliday, 22 points in Game 2, can help him out.
The Bucks have covered the spread in five of their last seven games facing the Hawks including in the last two games in this series where they won each game by double figures.
Can the Young Guys Come Back?
The Hawks have lost the last two games of this series and can the young squad come back? Young is injured and while going for 35 points in the Game 3 loss he only had three points in the fourth quarter after the ankle injury.
Bogdan Bogdanovic averaged 16.3 ppg in thje regular season but is dealing with a knee injury, only had eight points on 3/16 shooting in Game 3, and in his last five games has only averaged 6.2 ppg on 27.6% shooting.
John Collins (17.6 ppg) has shot the rock pretty well in the last two games but has only totaled 24 points after going for 23 points in the Game 1 win.
Young cannot be counted on to lead the Hawks with his ankle issue and Collins and the other guys have to pick up the scoring slack. Their D is also key, as in the two losses in the last two games of this series they have allowed Milwaukee to shoot over 51% from the floor.
The Prediction
I look for the Young and the Hawks to give a valiant effort in Game 4 at home but it will not be enough. Young is injured and Atlanta cannot match up with them if he is not scoring big. Atlanta will stick around for a while but Milwaukee smells blood in the water and they will take advantage of that. They will have a good all-around game and take Game 4 on the road and cover even giving six points to take a 3-1 series lead.
PICK: Bucks -6