PRE SEASON BETTING
It’s that time of year again! The almighty football season is upon us once again and with that, comes the chance to bet on pre season NFL Games! But be careful! We’ve seen plenty of players tap out before the regular season even begins! Handicapping the NFL pre season can in fact be very profitable though, if you know what to look for.
The first key to picking winners in the NFL pre season is information.
Years ago, information was tough to come by. Frequently costing thousands of dollars and not available to the average bettors. But thanks to the internet, times have changed. Now, anyone can access hundreds of newspapers across the country. Associated Press feeds, Reuters, ESPN and so on.
Simply go to google and utilize their news search. Type in the team your interested in researching, and bingo. Hundreds of articles about the team and it’s upcoming Game or Games.
In NFL pre season, Game plans are generally laid out in black and white by the coaches. Which players will they be taking an extra look at? How long will the starters play? How many snaps will the star QB take? It’s all there. For free. This can help the handicapper spot obvious mismatches, especially when you read that a veteran QB for example, will be playing an entire half against some kid fresh out of college who more than likely won’t even make the team. It happens every year!
Everyone knows some coaches like to win in the pre season, while other coaches could care less. Belicheck and Parcells like to win. As does Mike Shanahan. But as I mentioned above, EVERYONE KNOWS, including the oddsmakers. To the point that, blindly betting on a coach simply because he has won in the past during pre season, simply doesn’t cut it.
One popular angle that has been profitable the past few NFL pre seasons is to go with a team that already has a Game under their belts, when they go up against a team playing their first Game. The logic, of course, makes sense. But once again, be careful when wagering on these situations, because this is generally factored into the line on the Game, hence cutting into the value of the bet.
My favorite angles involve teams that have yet to win. Particularly teams that are 0-2. Most teams look for their best performance in Game 3 of the NFL pre season. The first two Games are used to take a look at the rookies, and make the initial cuts. Game 3 is generally a Game to see where they stand, and then Game 4 is usually a Game where they’ll try to avoid injury as they look ahead to opening day of the regular season.
The 0-2 is key, because lets face it, no team wants to head into the regular season without experiencing a win. Knowing Game 4 will not necessarily be all out, Game 3 is their chance to taste a win. Even stronger of the 0-2 team is at home!
This angle can work both ways. I like to take a close look at teams that are yet to win, and also teams that are yet to lose. Go back in time, 10 years, 15 years, however many years you’d like, and you’ll find that generally, very few teams go undefeated in the pre season. At the same time, very few teams go thru the pre season without a win. Some years just one or two tops.
So look for reasons to go against teams that are 3-0. Particularly if they are going up against a team that’s 0-3. Often in a situation like this, you’ll gain some extra value.
Either way, good luck, and let’s hope we all have a profitable NFL pre season followed by an even more profitable regular season!