9/7/08
The Cleveland Browns were a nice surprise last year, going 10-6 SU and narrowly missing a playoff spot. For bettors they were an even better surprise, compiling a stellar 12-4 ATS mark, iNCluding 7-1 at home. After a 34-7 home loss vs. Pittsburgh to open the season, the Browns went on a 12-3 spread run, iNCluding 7-0 SU and ATS at home, averaging a lofty 26.3 points per Game. The Browns should have similar success offensively this year as not much has changed. Theyve added WR Donte Stallworth, who will start opposite of Braylon Edwards. Edwards, who had an awesome year with 80 receptions for 1289 yds and 16 TDs, helped the Browns, as a team, to finish 1st in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 12.2 yds.
The high-flying Dallas Cowboys averaged an incredible 32.5 pts per Game over their first 13 Games in 2007 to go 12-1 SU, but then hit the skids a bit when they scored just 32 total pts in their last 3 Games combined. That offensive funk continued into the playoffs where they scored just 17 pts in the first round loss to the N.Y. Giants. The Cowboys finished their 17 Game season at 13-4 SU and 9-8 ATS. Playing a fairly weak Schedule, they went 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS in their 8 road Games. Marion Barber takes over full time RB duties for the departed Julius Jones, but other than that the offense remains intact.
It remains to be seen if both teams can repeat their offensive feats from a year ago. Both will be hungry again as the Browns came up just a bit short due to the tie-breaker rules, and the Cowboys thought they had a chance to go all the way. But these teams look pretty evenly matched offensively, and Cleveland will be featuring a revamped, and very likely much improved, defensive line with the off-season signings of Corey Williams (Green Bay) and Shaun Rogers (Detroit). Considering this Game is being played in Cleveland, which is a really tough place for opposing teams to play as evideNCed by the Browns 7-1 SU and ATS home records last year, Im going to grab the +3.5 points and go with the Browns. With Edwards, Stallworth and Winslow to stretch the field, Jamal Lewis should get some nice room to work with and I see the Browns being able to keep up with the Cowboys, and possibly even win outright.
BETTING TRENDS
DALLAS
Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 Games
Dallas is 13-4 SU in its last 17 Games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 Games
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 Games on the road
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 Games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas’s last 8 Games on the road
CLEVELAND
Cleveland is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Games
Cleveland is 8-3 SU in its last 11 Games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 5 Games
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 Games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 Games at home