NFL PLAYOFFS – KEY RELEASES
Only one small 2* play and 3 opinions to pass along this week in what should be a great weekend of NFL playoff football.
2* Ravens +3 -115 over Titans – Hard to say if this one is the best Game from a fan standpoint or not as we have at least 3 Games that look fantastic this week. But this one sure has the makings of a classic playoff battle. A defensive battle that is. What’s not to like about these two teams? Both teams have put up numbers this year defensively that you generally see with Super Bowl teams. The Titans have done it from start to finish. Other that Jets Game, and then the final Game of the year against the Colts that they rested everyone, they didn’t give up more than 17 points in any one Game all year long. the Ravens weren’t as good from start to finish but did shine over the last half of the season which is where we pick up how we’re going to look at this Game.
We’re going to look at the last 7 meaningful Games for each team. For the Ravens, that would be the last 7 Games of the season. For the Titans, we’d throw out their final Game against the Colts. What we find when we do this is that we have the two best teams using yards per points numbers in the entire NFL and more importantly of the remaining playoff teams, squaring off here with the Ravens numbers a tad better. Put another way, based on Our experieNCe using these numbers over 25+ years, one of these two teams is likely to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
The Ravens numbers over the 7 Games are 12 offensively and 24 defensively while the Titans numbers 13.4 offensively and 21.9 defensively. Fantastic for both teams but with the Ravens being a tad better on BOTH sides of the ball. When we use these numbers to make a line on the Game, we’d the Ravens 3.5 points better on a neutral field. In Tennessee, after ACCounting for home field advantage for the Titans, Our line would be pk which means from a betting standpoint you have to give the +3 a very hard look.
There’s two coNCerns in backing the Ravens here and they aren’t minor coNCerns. Coaching and Quarterback. With the Titans you have a coach in Jeff Fisher that has been the head man there (iNCluding time in Houston) longer than any other coach in the NFL (14 Years). In Kerry Collins, you have a QB that has taken a team to the Super Bowl and has seen his share of huge Games and all that go along with them, i.e. the media attention, going back to his days at Penn State. These two are going up a rookie head coach and Quarterback this week in Harbaugh and FlACCo which quite frankly is hard to put a numerical value on. It’s a significant factor though, from Game plan, to key in Game decisions and it’s an edge that obviously favors the Titans.
Although were not sure how much of an edge Kerry Collins will be. He’s done everything that’s been asked of him, but remember, he had one of his worst Games ever, when he took the Giants to the Super Bowl to face, you guessed it, the Baltimore Ravens and one of the best defenses ever. While this Ravens defense may not be as good as the one he faced that day, it’s still very, very good.
These two played early in the year in a Game that the Titans came from behind to win 13-10 and we see a very similar Game this week. It’s hard to make a case for anything other than a tight, low scoring Game which will eventually be decided by a big defensive play, likely a turnover, in which case we have to side with Our numbers and take the +3 here.
Those of you looking for teams to use in your teasers this weekend should consider either of these two teams. It’s very hard to imagine a Game between these two this week decided by much more than a field goal. 2* Ravens +3 over Titans
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1* Panthers -9.5 over Cardinals – We’re a little coNCerned with the Panthers here, in that, they have given up some big time points in Games this year on more than a few occasions and face a Cardinal team that can put points on the board with the best of them. More importantly, the Cards held their own with the Panthers earlier in the year in a 27-23 loss to the Panthers so they’ll have some confideNCe for sure. But things get picked up a notch in the playoffs and if you take a look at the Cardinals road numbers against the Panthers home numbers using yards per point the Game breaks down as a complete mismatch. We’re not in the habit of laying more than a touchdown in football Games at any level, which keeps this one at the 1* opinion level for us. again, those of you looking for teaser candidates, consider the Panthers this week.
1* Eagles +4 over Giants – We are purposely staying on the sidelines in this one as we have a futures wager made before the season started on the Giants to win the Super Bowl. Such a position can have an affect on the way we see the Game so it’s best for us to stay away here and offer only an opinion. With that in mind, we think the Giants could be in trouble this week. It’s the matchup they have to have feared most. These two are so familiar with each other that it’s hard to find a decisive edge either way. They played twice this year with the visitor taking both Games. The last time they played, a few weeks ago, the Eagles were able to come away with a win in which many blamed on the distractions surrounding the Giants and the Plaxico Burress situation. Fact remains though, the Giants were simply beaten that day and really, haven’t played like a Super Bowl team down the stretch. When we look at the last 7 meaningful Games for both teams we have nearly identical yards per point numbers for both teams with a 13 on offense and a 16 on defense with the Eagles holding the very slightly better number defensively. Long story short, the Game breaks down dead even. Perhaps the Giants by a field goal when ACCounting for home field but with the number 4, only one way to look here.
Ultimately, we feel the Giants will find a way to win this one. At least, for the sake of Our futures wager, we hops that’s the case. But if we had to make a play here based on the numbers, we’d have to take the points.
1* Steelers -6 over Chargers – Simply siding with the Steelers defense in this one. Have to figure that the Steelers will completely shut down Darren Sproles here after watching him run wild on the Colts. With Tomlinson and GAtes both injured, if they shut down Sproles that doesn’t leave many options against a Steelers defense that hasn’t allowed more than 13 points at home since November. Truthfully, when we break this one down using Our numbers over the 2nd half of the season the numbers favor the Chargers plus the points but we aren’t sold. We think the strength of Schedule for the Chargers over that stretch has alot to do with those numbers favoring them here. So it’s a slight recommendation based on the Steelers defense and the home field advantage here but really not interested in laying 6 points with this Steelers offense.
1* 10 point teaser Panthers +1/2 – Ravens +13 – Steelers +4 – This time of year can be a profitable time for teasers. Especially when dealing with defenses like the Steelers and Ravens that aren’t likely to give up many points. Just a small 1* here
Be sure to check out what’s on tap at Bettorsworld’s Free Sports Monitor! NFL playoff picks from the Nations top DOCUMENTED handicappers! check them out right here before making a move!
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