Handicapper Rick J Picks Two College Football Games and Two NFL Games
9/11/09
NFL Week 1 is here finally. My selection process is similar to what I used last week in NCAA Football. Although I also use a proprietary variable that I developed mid season of last year that worked out so well I am iNCorporating it into my selection process for all Games this year.
Before we get to the NFL let’s take a look at a couple of College plays that meet Our criteria.
Wyoming +33.5
The public right now is 91 % on Texas with only 9% on Wyoming. That can change dramatically before Game time but I am anticipating it will be under 30% at Game time.
My models show the following:
Texas by 37, 5, 24 and 5
With 3 of 4 favoring Wyoming.
Situations are none on either side.
Connecticut +4 is a clear lean and a half point from being a full play.
The public is on North Carolina 77% compared to 23% on Conn.
My neural models show the following for the Game:
NC by 8 and 2 and UCONN by 1 and 4.
If the line were to move to +4.5 it would be a play.
Now let’s move on to Week One NFL Action. There are 2 Games that show up on my radar this weekend.
The first is Tampa Bay +6
It’s is a full play. The public is very heavy on Dallas with 82% of the public going with Dallas and only 18 percent with Tampa.
Next my neural nets show the following for the Game:
Tampa by -4.5, -3, 1 and 1
So all the models favor Tampa.
The situations are none on either side but that isnt unexpected the first week of the season.
Finally my proprietary indicator favors Tampa also.
And as a bonus the line opened at 3 and is now at 6.
The second is a lean on Denver +4
The public is again heavy on Cincinnati with 82% favoring Cinci and only 18% favoring Denver.
My models show:
Cinci by -4, -2.5 and then Denver by 10 and 5
So 3 of 4 favor Denver with the other being a tie.
again no situations and you get a bonus of a line move from 3 to 4 which gets past that big 3.5 number.
In summary 1 lean and 1 play :
Play on Tampa +6
Lean on Denver +4
I also enter the stations NFL contest which requires 5 picks against the spread each week.
My other 3 picks in the contest are in the order I like them:
San Fran +6.5
Jets +4.5
Miami +4
Good LUck!
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
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