NFL
Week 14
Picks
against the Spread
12/13/15
Steelers/Bengals UNDER 50 and Bengals -2.5 -120 – Yeah, these two have put up some points recently however these are two of the better defensive units in the NFL as their ypp numbers show us (Cinci 20.7 and Pitt 18.3). Also expect the cream to continue to rise to the top with playoff bound Cinci grabbing a win and cover over the Steelers who will be home for the holidays.
Bills -1 over Eagles – The feeling here is that the Eagles losses of 45-14 to the Lions and 45-17 to the Bucs is a better representation of who this team is than their recent upset of the Pats. Our model also has the Bills on top by 7+
Panthers -7 -120 over Falcons – Last weeks result vs. the Saints shows the Panthers are beatable, giving up 38 points in that one and lucky to get out with a win. But that Panther defense should look much better this week against a Falcon squad that has lost 5 in a row and averaged just 17 points per Game in that stretch. Also note that these two meet again in two weeks.
49ers +1.5 over Browns and UNDER 38 – Ugly Game. Two poor offenses should combine to go under the total here and the 49ers have the better defense which has us leaning their way.
Bears -3 -125 over Redskins – Both teams are pretenders. Neither could get it done when it counted last week. Redskins still tied for 1st in NFC East. Bears help change that this week. We have the Bears on top by 7+.
Lions +1 over Rams – The wheels have come off the Rams train with 5 straight losses, 3 of them blowouts.
Chiefs -10 over Chargers – 10 is a HUGE number to lay in the NFL and something we’ll rarely do. However, after starting the season 1-5, the Chiefs have rattled off 6 straight wins by an average score of 32-13 and have become a top 10 team in many statistical categories. Also note turnover differential here of Chargers -8 and Chiefs +13.
Bucs -3.5 over Saints – Have to think the Saints left it all on the field last week coming up short against the Panthers. Can’t have much left in the tank. Bucs are the better team right now.
Jets -7 -115 over Titans – Weak call. Don’t have a ton of faith in the Jets ability to extend a margin, but if they are going to be a legitimate playoff team, they’ll get this one and if they get this one, odds are, they’ll cover.
Pats -3 -125 over Texans – Pats off back to back losses. The Texans “D” is legit (#3 against the pass) however it’s the offensive side of the ball where they might have trouble as their 17.1 yards per point number shows (Pats off ypp 12.9). Gronkowski is doubtful, but still like Our chances with the Pats. Beware though……Our model, when using only the last 7 Games worth of data, suggest the Pats win this one but just by a nose (2 pts).
Broncos -7 over Raiders – Broncos defense won the first meeting and may have to do so again. But this “D” is #1 against the pass and #4 against the run and no doubt up for the task at home. We repeat this often, and will do so for the next couple of weeks….the cream rises to the top down the stretch and the Broncos fit the bill.
Packers – 6.5 over Cowboys – Both teams won last week. The Pack stumbled through the month of November and are 2-1 in December. They have at least shown signs this season of being respectable. Meanwhile, blame it on the Romo injury if you want, but the Cowboys haven’t been a very good team since the get go. Even when only using recent data, Our model still likes the Packers by 7+
Ravens +11.5 over Seahawks – All signs point towards Seattle, especially now that Jimmy Clausen gets the nod for Baltimore. But a -11.5 road fav in the NFL? Nah. Can’t do it.