Week 4
NFL Picks
against the Spread
with Analysis
10/4/15
Here we take a look at Week 4 in the NFL. We oNCe again urge you to use caution with these picks. After this week, we will have 4 weeks in the books which means we will then have 4 weeks of data, which Our methods require. Starting next week, we’ll have more confideNCe in Our NFL picks!
Jets -1 over Dolphins – Any time an NFL team gets hammered the way the Dolphins did last week, you expect a complete reversal the following week. But while the Dolphins will likely play much better and make this a good Game, the Jets look to be the much better team on both sides of the ball.
Jags +9.5 over Colts – This line more a reflection of the past than the present as BOTH teams have looked horrible thus far. We’re only 3 Games in and really require a little more data to make coNCrete judgments but the data we do have suggests this one is close to a toss up.
Falcons -6 over Texans – Texans offensive yards per point number of 19.8 suggest they won’t be able to go toe to toe with Matty Ice and company.
Panthers -3 over Bucs – Speaking of yards per point numbers, the Bucs have just about the worst in the NFL on both sides of the ball. Our model agrees picking the Panthers by about 10. We tread lightly here though as 87% of the wagers taken on this one have come in on the Panthers and NOTHING is ever THAT easy in the NFL.
Giants +5.5 over Bills – Game opened 6 and we’d suggest watching the board in hopes of grabbing +6. Giants are just a couple of points and a bad decision or two from being 3-0. The numbers we like to use back that up. In other words, if we were to look at those numbers not knowing the Giants were 1-2, the numbers would suggest they are a pretty good football team and would suggest this Game is a toss up.
Bears +3 over Raiders – Based strictly on the stats after 3 Games, all signs point towards the Raiders. Not to mention QB Jay Cutler likely not playing for the Bears this week. However we have to consider WHO each team has played and when doing so, have to coNClude that the Bears Schedules been much more difficult. We’ll take a shot with the home dog here.
Redskins +3 over Eagles – Demarco Murray is questionable for this Game but frankly, the jury is still out on the Eagles whether he plays or not. We’ll take a shot with another home dog in this spot.
Bengals -4 over Chiefs – Could this be CiNCy’s year? Too soon to tell. No shame in the Chiefs losses to Green Bay and Denver but we think the Bengals at home are the right side in this one. Should be a close one though, so tread lightly here.
Browns +7 over Chargers – Browns look to be an improved team while the Chargers seem to be headed in the opposite direction and are banged up.
Packers -8 over 49ers – At first glaNCe the number seems high, but these 49ers are horrendous while the Pack looks to oNCe again be a contender.
Vikings +7 over Broncos – an against the public special as the majority of the action is on the Broncos while the line has nudged the opposite direction.
Cards -6.5 over Rams – Are the Cards that good, or is their success the result of playing bad teams early? We’ll find out this week, but even if it’s the result of bad teams, this is still the NFL and the Cards offense looks to be rolling!