Week Six NFL Picks

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Week 6

NFL Picks

against the Spread

10/17/15

 

Here’s a quick look at week 6 in the NFL with a few words and a pick for each Game on the board for Sunday.

 

Broncos -4 over Browns – who would have thought the Peyton Manning led Broncos would be getting it done with DEFENSE? If Peyton and the offense can get things going even half as well as the past few years this could be a dangerous team.

 

Bills +3 over Bengals – As of this writing on Friday, the Bills starting QB is still up in the air. Bengals delivered last week in that big come from behind win over Seattle but that win has the potential to set up a letdown here. Either way, these two teams putting up similiar numbers so we’ll take the points.

 

Vikings -3.5 over Chiefs – The public is all over the Vikes in this one and we’re going to join them. Vikes defensive yards per point number of 19.6 among the best in the NFL.

 

Texans +1 over Jags – The late Pete Axthelm used to call Games like this “smashed windshield Games”. That meant that you could leave two tickets to the Game on your dashboard and someone would smash your windsheild and leave the tickets!

 

Lions -3 over Bears – Smashed Windshield. See above. Really not interested in risking real money on either bad team. Would usually take the points in such a matchup. However, Our model likes the Lions by more than the spot, so we’ll take a shot.

 

Jets -6 over Redskins – Last Sunday you would have gone 9-2 against the spread in the NFL had you simply been able to pick the straight up winner of the Games. That’s pretty much the way it plays out each week. Which means when handicapping the NFL, you should first be looking to pick a straight up winner. When we do so with this Games, it comes up Jets as they are the superior team on both sides of the ball.

 

Steelers +4 over Cardinals – Interesting Game, in that, neither team has really played anyone, with the exception of the Steelers 28-21 loss to the Pats. That loss alone may show that the Steelers are the better team. But the loss of Big Ben whic puts Vick behind center adds yet another question mark. Still, this should be the Cards toughest test to date.

 

Titans -1 over Dolphins – Not sure the coaching change will be enough to get Miami their 2nd win. The Dolphin offense just not getting it done. Wouldn’t lay points here but at -1, just being asked to pick a winner.

 

Panthers +7 over Seahawks – Another Game where one team, the Panthers, has yet to play anyone. Their numbers are impressive, but look who they played. We should learn a little more this week. But the Seahawks look to be on the decline and there may be some value going against them at home for the forseeable future. Word of caution though, Our model likes Seattle by almost 2 TD’s.

 

Packers -10.5 over Chargers – Packers have won by 7, 10, 10, 14 and 14. Clearly the better team here and clearly capable of covering the spot.

 

Ravens -2 over 49ers – Just a matter of preferring FlACCo over Kaepernick. Two bad teams here.

 

Pats -9.5 over Colts – Normally wouldn’t lay this big of a number with a road team. But……Colts -7 turnover margin among the worst in the NFL (Pats +5) and the differeNCe between the Pats offense, which is running on all cylynders and the Colts offense, is like night and day. Pats haven’t missed a beat yet and don’t see this being the week they do.

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