Bills Rams Week 5

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Bills

vs.

Rams

Week 5

NFL Pick

10/9/16

Week 5 offers a matchup of two of the surprisingly good stories of recent weeks in the NFL season when Buffalo visits Los Angeles. After stumbling out of the GAte 0-2, the Bills have rebounded with a pair of two-possession wins over Arizona and at New England. They are in second-place in the AFC East. The Rams were hideous early. They were shut out in the their opener, but they have found a way to win each of their last three Games, despite not finding the end zone in one of them. Los Angeles is favored by 2.5 on the 5Dimes Sportsbook with an over/under of 39.5.

The over/under is the lowest of the week for the NFL and for good reason. Buffalo ranks 28th in total offense per Game, averaging 307.0 yards per Game. Los Angeles ranks dead last, averaging 269.0 yards per Game. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in points per Game as well. Neither team is necessarily all that good overall on defense, but both teams limit opponents opportunities to score. Buffalo is only allowing 18 points per Game; Los Angeles is averaging allowing 19.

Tyrod Taylor is averaging throwing the ball for under 200 yards per Game. He’s only found the end zone Four times and has thrown two interceptions. His targets have been just as unimpressive. His top targets are Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. Neither receiver has even reached 200 yards on the season.

Case Keenum has been just as mediocre. He’s averaging passing for just over 200 yards per Game, but he’s only thrown Four touchdowns to the three interceptions he’s thrown. Kenny Britt has been his only serviceable target, with 281 receiving yards on the season.

Todd Gurley has been shut down completely. He has 216 rushing yards and two touchdowns this year. Gurley is averaging a paltry 2.6 yards per carry on the season. Both teams have been average defensively against the run.

It’s obvious to see why this Game is projected to be the lowest-scoring Game of the week. There just isn’t anything inspiring to say so far about either side. Both teams also rank in the top 5 in the NFL in turnover margin.

This Game features the #3 and #4 ranked defenses in the NFL (using yards per point as a measuring stick). But it’s the Bills who also rank well offensively while the Rams are in the bottom 3rd of the league. Our model agrees that the points are worth taking here in a low scoring Game that the Bills win straight up. Bills +2.5