Kansas City Chiefs
vs.
Denver Broncos
Week 12
NFL Pick
11/27/16
The Kansas City Chiefs must move on from a tough loss against a team they should have beaten in the Bucs last week. The Chiefs are now tied with the Broncos at 7 and 3. They’re both one Game behind the AFC West and AFC leading Raiders.
The Chiefs have been struggling on offense without Jeremy MAClin. It’s no secret that the Chiefs are not an offensive juggernaut, but without the dynamics of MAClin and Charles, it’ll be a struggle for the Chiefs to find continuity on offense.
The Chiefs better turn things around or they may find themselves outside of the playoff picture as the surging Dolphins are only one Game behind the Chiefs. Yes, we’re only in Week 12, but it is typically around this time that the playoff picture starts to take form.
This week will make it more difficult for Smith and Chiefs to try and push the ball downfield because of the pass rush of Von Miller who comes into Game with 9.5 sacks. The Broncos also have a stout secondary with cornerback Aqib Talib and safety TJ Ward leading the charge, helping only allow 1,943 yards passing for the year.
The Broncos have struggled offensively of late with Trevor Siemian under center, the second year QB out of Northwestern has only thrown for 12 TDS and the Broncos lack of a running Game has added to the offensive struggles. Broncos running back CJ Anderson went down earlier this season; he was playing very well when the injury occurred. Now, Devon Booker must shoulder the load.
This week’s Game should be a very defensive oriented, with the winner coming out on top by forcing the most turnovers (KC #1 in NFL at +13 differential).
The Broncos need to try to get their running Game going early and avoid airing it out against a very formidable Chiefs secondary showcased by second-year cornerback Marcus Peters who has 5 interceptions for the season.
Alex Smith is not a turnover prone quarterback and SpeNCer Ware is serviceable on offense.
When using yards per point numbers to rank NFL defenses, these Chiefs rank #1 in the league. That’s significant. Playoff teams and eventual Super Bowl winners almost always place in the top 3 to 5 in this category.
Our model likes the Broncos by a TD in this Game. But we are going to disagree with the model here. We see the Broncos offense, that has struggled, having some problems this week against a very good Chiefs defense. Chiefs +3